Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Team Allied (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (50%) · InterActive Philippines at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

InterActive Philippines60¢Team Allied40¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$260.04

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 60¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

InterActive Philippines60%

Team Allied40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,300

Combined PnL+$11.92

Team Allied5 traders

Total Value$531.43

Total Shares1,069

Combined PnL+$248.12

InterActive Philippines — 50%Team Allied — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInterActive Philippines 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team Allied 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 56.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$95.38	6% 16-269 (285)
AM ameisgoat11	InterActive Philippinesavg 69.3¢	$639.28	$553.46	-$85.82	17% 38-183 (221)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	Team Alliedavg 29.9¢	$177.91	$230.34	+$52.43	6% 9-141 (150)
GA GaditimaCTR	Team Alliedavg 11.1¢	$42.87	$189.85	+$143.1	47% 28-32 (60)
38 38791873984189	InterActive Philippinesavg 54.8¢	$123.7	$122.26	-$1.44	49% 374-391 (765)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 17.8¢	$37.21	$74.2	+$36	60% 37-25 (62)
CI cigarettes<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 56¢	$56	$51	-$5	38% 88-145 (233)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	InterActive Philippinesavg 55.4¢	$33.95	$42.75	+$8.8	—
dips.CTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 34¢	$50	$24	+$7	47% 89-100 (189)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 13¢	$3.46	$13.04	+$9.58	23% 45-152 (197)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$95.38

Record

16-269 (285)

ameisgoat11

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$639.28

Value

$553.46

PnL

-$85.82

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$177.91

Value

$230.34

PnL

+$52.43

Record

9-141 (150)

GaditimaCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$42.87

Value

$189.85

PnL

+$143.1

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

38791873984189

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$123.7

Value

$122.26

PnL

-$1.44

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$37.21

Value

$74.2

PnL

+$36

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

cigarettes<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$56

Value

$51

PnL

-$5

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$33.95

Value

$42.75

PnL

+$8.8

Record

—

dips.CTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$50

Value

$24

PnL

+$7

Record

47%

89-100 (189)

sentrioCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$3.46

Value

$13.04

PnL

+$9.58

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInterActive Philippines 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Team Allied 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.