Dota 2: HULIGANI vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (52%) · LEGION at 100¢ · $151K held · ends Nov 7

HULIGANI<1¢LEGION>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$151.3K

Combined PnL

$45.4K

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 100¢

+88% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI0%

LEGION100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION12 traders

Total Value$138.8K

Total Shares138,938

Combined PnL+$66.9K

HULIGANI11 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares51,618

Combined PnL$-21.6K

LEGION — 52%HULIGANI — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLEGION 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	LEGIONavg 41.1¢	$24.6K	$59.8K	+$35.3K	58% 955-684 (1639)
LO lonmi2511	LEGIONavg 65.6¢	$17.1K	$26.1K	+$9.0K	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
CoinTrick	LEGIONavg 99.9¢	$13.8K	$13.8K	+$6.92	97% 4793-152 (4945)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	LEGIONavg 31.5¢	$3.1K	$9.9K	+$6.8K	50% 564-572 (1136)
GO GooGooGaga1	LEGIONavg 80.7¢	$13.3K	$8.4K	+$5.6K	77% 68-20 (88)
Skritopoolniy	LEGIONavg 37¢	$2.8K	$7.7K	+$4.8K	47% 637-731 (1368)
RA RandomVibecoder	LEGIONavg 36.4¢	$3.8K	$6.7K	+$2.9K	48% 855-909 (1764)
AM ameisgoat11	LEGIONavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$27.62	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	HULIGANIavg 62.2¢	$4.1K	$3.5K	-$526.41	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
GX gxxyyCTR	HULIGANIavg 44¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$159.34	69% 521-229 (750)
Medo3D	LEGIONavg 52¢	$1.3K	$2.5K	+$1.2K	41% 182-264 (446)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	HULIGANIavg 33.5¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$750.44	53% 667-598 (1265)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 33¢	$972.99	$1.5K	+$577	53% 206-183 (389)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 29.9¢	$478	$799.99	+$322
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 33¢	$495	$749.99	+$255
Sunshine.SmileCTR	HULIGANIavg 52.6¢	$13.9K	$1.3K	$-12.6K	58% 1973-1446 (3419)
R2 r2d2v2CTR	HULIGANIavg 69.1¢	$254	$183.82	-$70.18	54% 303-255 (558)
VeryLucky888	LEGIONavg 45¢	$90	$100	+$10	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrio<$100	LEGIONavg 48.7¢	$25.39	$52.15	+$26.76	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 18.1¢	$52	$29.92	-$22.08	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
TR Trungl	LEGIONavg 32.9¢	$675.1	$20.49	+$1.3K	61% 410-265 (675)
GE GeorgeReCTR	HULIGANIavg 69¢	$6.5K	$4.74	$-6.5K	54% 1138-979 (2117)
Hawk.liveCTR	HULIGANIavg 55.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5	$-1.7K	56% 695-537 (1232)
XU xuxuntaoCTR	HULIGANIavg 68.1¢	$990.92	$0.73	-$990.19	61% 116-74 (190)
maytopmayCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 68.8¢	$68.77	$0.04	-$52.17	61% 311-201 (512)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 7¢	$4.99	$0.04	-$4.95	33% 1194-2378 (3572)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

LEGION

Invested

$24,585.81

Value

$59.8K

PnL

+$35.3K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

lonmi2511

LEGION

Invested

$17,124.51

Value

$26.1K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

CoinTrick

LEGION

Invested

$13,820.47

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$6.92

Record

97%

4793-152 (4945)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

LEGION

Invested

$3,112.41

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

50%

564-572 (1136)

GooGooGaga1

LEGION

Invested

$13,278.3

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

77%

68-20 (88)

Skritopoolniy

LEGION

Invested

$2,840.94

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

47%

637-731 (1368)

RandomVibecoder

LEGION

Invested

$3,794.4

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

ameisgoat11

LEGION

Invested

$3,738.37

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$27.62

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,054.47

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$526.41

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

gxxyyCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,439.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$159.34

Record

69%

521-229 (750)

Medo3D

LEGION

Invested

$1,307.89

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

PourpelNourpelCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,750.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$750.44

Record

53%

667-598 (1265)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$972.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$577

Record

53%

206-183 (389)

Both legs:

Invested

$13,915.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-12.6K

Record

58%

1973-1446 (3419)

r2d2v2CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$254

Value

$183.82

PnL

-$70.18

Record

54%

303-255 (558)

VeryLucky888

LEGION

Invested

$90

Value

$100

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrio<$100

LEGION

Invested

$25.39

Value

$52.15

PnL

+$26.76

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

pauleta23CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$52

Value

$29.92

PnL

-$22.08

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

Trungl

LEGION

Invested

$675.1

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

61%

410-265 (675)

GeorgeReCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,546.23

Value

$4.74

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

54%

1138-979 (2117)

Hawk.liveCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,675

Value

$1.5

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

56%

695-537 (1232)

xuxuntaoCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$990.92

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$990.19

Record

61%

116-74 (190)

maytopmayCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$68.77

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$52.17

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$4.99

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.95

Record

33%

1194-2378 (3572)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

12 of 23 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+55 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLEGION 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.