Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Inner Circle, while the market favors HULIGANI (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (83%) · Inner Circle at 28¢ · $789 held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI73¢Inner Circle27¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 83%

Total Value

$789.43

Combined PnL

-$99.62

Smart Money Entry

26.2¢ → 27.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidInner Circle at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI73%

Inner Circle28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle5 traders

Total Value$776.56

Total Shares3,349

Combined PnL-$99.74

HULIGANI1 trader

Total Value$12.86

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.12

Inner Circle — 83%HULIGANI — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Inner Circle 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Inner Circleavg 26.3¢	$728.73	$636.4	-$92.33	— 4-3 (7)
GT gt7238CTR	Inner Circleavg 26¢	$111.54	$98.67	-$12.87	2% 11-441 (452)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 23.5¢	$31.39	$36.67	+$5.28	47% 66-74 (140)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	HULIGANIavg 72.3¢	$12.74	$12.86	+$0.12	35% 176-320 (496)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 23¢	$3.45	$3.45	-$0	47% 781-864 (1645)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Inner Circleavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.37	+$0.17	48% 410-447 (857)

JuiceFarmCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$728.73

Value

$636.4

PnL

-$92.33

Record

—

4-3 (7)

gt7238CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$111.54

Value

$98.67

PnL

-$12.87

Record

11-441 (452)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$31.39

Value

$36.67

PnL

+$5.28

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

omnibus-076daa<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$12.74

Value

$12.86

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

176-320 (496)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

410-447 (857)

Research grade

AvoidInner Circle at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors HULIGANI 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrInner Circle 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Inner Circle 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.