Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner

20 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (63%) · CyberHero at 100¢ · $92K held · ends Nov 16

HULIGANI<1¢CyberHero>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.8K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

20 of 32 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI0%

CyberHero100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero20 traders

Total Value$80.6K

Total Shares83,066

Combined PnL+$22.8K

HULIGANI12 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares110,947

Combined PnL$-29.2K

CyberHero — 63%HULIGANI — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 54.5¢	$15.8K	$28.9K	+$13.1K	47% 488-549 (1037)
handandfacetatto	CyberHeroavg 99.9¢	$21.4K	$21.4K	+$15.04	98% 119-2 (121)
CyberScore.liveCTR	HULIGANIavg 37.7¢	$10.0K	$6.2K	$-3.8K	56% 47-37 (84)
GX gxxyy	CyberHeroavg 73.5¢	$4.4K	$6.0K	+$1.6K	69% 520-231 (751)
WH whosay	CyberHeroavg 56.5¢	$3.1K	$5.5K	+$2.4K	70% 64-28 (92)
0X 0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190	CyberHeroavg 54.5¢	$2.9K	$5.4K	+$2.5K	65% 36-19 (55)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR	HULIGANIavg 32.4¢	$4.8K	$3.8K	-$946.65	23% 26-89 (115)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	CyberHeroavg 62.5¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$261.84	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	CyberHeroavg 67.3¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$604.64	46% 160-190 (350)
CC ccllar	CyberHeroavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$661.75	43% 62-81 (143)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	CyberHeroavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$75.91	16% 44-223 (267)
CA calculate10	CyberHeroavg 72.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$335.13	37% 83-141 (224)
YI yishiwucheng	CyberHeroavg 65.3¢	$942.56	$1.2K	+$216.59	57% 111-83 (194)
XU xuxuntao	CyberHeroavg 96.3¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$38.17	48% 58-62 (120)
OM omnibus-076daa	CyberHeroavg 43.8¢	$514.55	$986.15	+$471.59	46% 653-760 (1413)
BI BillBenter2026	CyberHeroavg 46.8¢	$498.45	$894.46	+$396.01	33% 308-624 (932)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$1.2K	$765	-$2.14	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$512.5	$492	-$20.5
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 49.9¢	$262.01	$273	+$18.36
PA panpidaras1	CyberHeroavg 61.6¢	$453.08	$672.24	+$222.29	16% 61-313 (374)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	HULIGANIavg 57¢	$307.82	$302.42	-$5.4	55% 84-69 (153)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	CyberHeroavg 53.8¢	$192.83	$231.36	+$38.53	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
38 38791873984189	CyberHeroavg 72.7¢	$212.7	$99.64	+$25.8	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA pauleta23<$100	CyberHeroavg 68.5¢	$50	$72.94	+$22.94	43% 570-766 (1336)
LR lryyy<$100	CyberHeroavg 79.7¢	$68.1	$55.35	-$12.74	46% 998-1194 (2192)
Medo3DCTR	HULIGANIavg 42.6¢	$6.9K	$8.08	$-6.9K	12% 37-263 (300)
MO motivatorglCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 0.4¢	$60.87	$7.56	-$50.53	51% 35-34 (69)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$15,797.3

Value

$28.9K

PnL

+$13.1K

Record

47%

488-549 (1037)

handandfacetatto

CyberHero

Invested

$21,408.01

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$15.04

Record

98%

119-2 (121)

CyberScore.liveCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$9,999.78

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

gxxyy

CyberHero

Invested

$4,412.99

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

69%

520-231 (751)

whosay

CyberHero

Invested

$3,109.75

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

70%

64-28 (92)

0xc5d909a16130A0A0b61Af3dB09a89e108093b188-1780593472190

CyberHero

Invested

$2,945

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

65%

36-19 (55)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,792.49

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$946.65

Record

23%

26-89 (115)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

CyberHero

Invested

$1,645.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$261.84

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

CyberHero

Invested

$1,245.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$604.64

Record

46%

160-190 (350)

ccllar

CyberHero

Invested

$1,157.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$661.75

Record

43%

62-81 (143)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

CyberHero

Invested

$1,407.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$75.91

Record

16%

44-223 (267)

calculate10

CyberHero

Invested

$1,190.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$335.13

Record

37%

83-141 (224)

yishiwucheng

CyberHero

Invested

$942.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$216.59

Record

57%

111-83 (194)

xuxuntao

CyberHero

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$38.17

Record

48%

58-62 (120)

omnibus-076daa

CyberHero

Invested

$514.55

Value

$986.15

PnL

+$471.59

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

BillBenter2026

CyberHero

Invested

$498.45

Value

$894.46

PnL

+$396.01

Record

33%

308-624 (932)

NotJumpARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,159.91

Value

$765

PnL

-$2.14

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$512.550¢-$20.5

CyberHero$262.0149.9¢+$18.36

panpidaras1

CyberHero

Invested

$453.08

Value

$672.24

PnL

+$222.29

Record

16%

61-313 (374)

PourpelNourpelCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$307.82

Value

$302.42

PnL

-$5.4

Record

55%

84-69 (153)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

CyberHero

Invested

$192.83

Value

$231.36

PnL

+$38.53

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

38791873984189

CyberHero

Invested

$212.7

Value

$99.64

PnL

+$25.8

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

pauleta23<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$50

Value

$72.94

PnL

+$22.94

Record

43%

570-766 (1336)

lryyy<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$68.1

Value

$55.35

PnL

-$12.74

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

Medo3DCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,891.07

Value

$8.08

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

12%

37-263 (300)

motivatorglCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$60.87

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$50.53

Record

51%

35-34 (69)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

20 of 32 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.