Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold HULIGANI, while the market favors CyberHero (69%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (83%) · HULIGANI at 32¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI32¢CyberHero68¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 83%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$242.5

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 31.5¢

-45% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI32%

CyberHero69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,485

Combined PnL+$401.99

HULIGANI10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,020

Combined PnL-$644.49

CyberHero — 17%HULIGANI — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	CyberHeroavg 47.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$315.54	6% 16-269 (285)
VeryLucky888CTR	HULIGANIavg 59.3¢	$921.26	$474.63	-$281.06	53% 55-48 (103)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 39.8¢	$309.06	$304.55	-$4.52	17% 38-183 (221)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 39.8¢	$169.95	$157.91	-$12.04
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 59.8¢	$139.11	$146.63	+$7.52
BI BillBenter2026CTR	HULIGANIavg 56.1¢	$498.56	$275.28	-$223.28	13% 27-174 (201)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	CyberHeroavg 41.2¢	$163.56	$250.01	+$86.44	5% 20-407 (427)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$216.11	$170.03	-$46.07	37% 37-62 (99)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$189.41	$130.73	-$58.67
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 44.5¢	$26.7	$39.3	+$12.6
CA calculate10ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 50.6¢	$182.31	$138.34	+$1.82	18% 9-42 (51)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 45.4¢	$57.94	$80.32	+$30.43
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 50.6¢	$79.35	$58.03	-$28.62
GA GaditimaCTR	HULIGANIavg 54.2¢	$135.5	$92.5	-$44.25	47% 28-32 (60)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	HULIGANIavg 53¢	$100	$69.81	-$31.13	50% 14-14 (28)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 56.7¢	$96.03	$62.71	-$33.32	52% 12-11 (23)
38 38791873984189CTR	HULIGANIavg 53¢	$104.18	$45.19	-$5.92	49% 374-391 (765)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$1.2K	$16.43	-$6.08	100% 23-0 (23)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 52¢	$22.88	$16.28	-$6.82	60% 37-25 (62)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 61¢	$25.62	$15.33	-$10.29	23% 30-101 (131)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 60¢	$10	$3.65	-$2.35	22% 26-94 (120)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

CyberHero

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$315.54

Record

16-269 (285)

VeryLucky888CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$921.26

Value

$474.63

PnL

-$281.06

Record

53%

55-48 (103)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$309.06

Value

$304.55

PnL

-$4.52

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$169.9539.8¢-$12.04

CyberHero$139.1159.8¢+$7.52

BillBenter2026CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$498.56

Value

$275.28

PnL

-$223.28

Record

13%

27-174 (201)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

CyberHero

Invested

$163.56

Value

$250.01

PnL

+$86.44

Record

20-407 (427)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$216.11

Value

$170.03

PnL

-$46.07

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$189.4150¢-$58.67

CyberHero$26.744.5¢+$12.6

calculate10ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$182.31

Value

$138.34

PnL

+$1.82

Record

18%

9-42 (51)

Both legs:

CyberHero$57.9445.4¢+$30.43

HULIGANI$79.3550.6¢-$28.62

GaditimaCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$135.5

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$44.25

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$100

Value

$69.81

PnL

-$31.13

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$96.03

Value

$62.71

PnL

-$33.32

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

38791873984189CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$104.18

Value

$45.19

PnL

-$5.92

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,200

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$6.08

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

lryyyCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$22.88

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$6.82

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

biying88888CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$25.62

Value

$15.33

PnL

-$10.29

Record

23%

30-101 (131)

RLWGCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$10

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$2.35

Record

22%

26-94 (120)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.