Dota 2: Froglings vs Zenith - Game 2 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (50%) · Froglings at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 7

Froglings>99¢Zenith<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 50%

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings100%

Zenith0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings5 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares15,226

Combined PnL+$932.93

Zenith5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares10,938

Combined PnL+$522.13

Froglings — 50%Zenith — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 85.6¢	$6.6K	$7.7K	+$1.2K	58% 955-684 (1639)
CO ColdBlooded	Froglingsavg 87.1¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$288.78	73% 159-60 (219)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Zenithavg 12¢	$605.31	$858.58	+$253.27	48% 855-909 (1764)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Zenithavg 13.6¢	$373.13	$467.93	+$94.8	47% 637-731 (1368)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Zenithavg 11.1¢	$300.49	$462.08	+$161.59	53% 667-597 (1264)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	Froglingsavg 79.5¢	$358.08	$214.67	+$56.94	62% 622-382 (1004)
OM omnibus-076daa	Froglingsavg 98¢	$132.44	$135.08	+$2.64	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
38 38791873984189	Froglingsavg 73.7¢	$113	$120.01	+$7.01	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Zenithavg 7.7¢	$23.17	$51.38	+$28.22	47% 1363-1536 (2899)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Zenithavg 16.1¢	$30.79	$10.05	-$15.74	47% 9560-10672 (20232)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$6,597.51

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

ColdBlooded

Froglings

Invested

$6,130.25

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$288.78

Record

73%

159-60 (219)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Zenith

Invested

$605.31

Value

$858.58

PnL

+$253.27

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Zenith

Invested

$373.13

Value

$467.93

PnL

+$94.8

Record

47%

637-731 (1368)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Zenith

Invested

$300.49

Value

$462.08

PnL

+$161.59

Record

53%

667-597 (1264)

BackTestEoCaraio

Froglings

Invested

$358.08

Value

$214.67

PnL

+$56.94

Record

62%

622-382 (1004)

omnibus-076daa

Froglings

Invested

$132.44

Value

$135.08

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

38791873984189

Froglings

Invested

$113

Value

$120.01

PnL

+$7.01

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Zenith

Invested

$23.17

Value

$51.38

PnL

+$28.22

Record

47%

1363-1536 (2899)

lryyyCTR<$100

Zenith

Invested

$30.79

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$15.74

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.