Dota 2: Froglings vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (40%) · Froglings at 55¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings55¢Team Synapse45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.8K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 54.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings55%

Team Synapse46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings4 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares28,663

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Team Synapse6 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares36,453

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Froglings — 40%Team Synapse — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 60.1¢	$14.3K	$17.1K	+$2.7K	59% 1035-727 (1762)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Team Synapseavg 35.3¢	$3.2K	$6.4K	+$3.2K	46% 680-798 (1478)
Medo3DCTR	Team Synapseavg 38.4¢	$6.1K	$4.9K	$-1.3K	41% 198-288 (486)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Synapseavg 36.3¢	$3.1K	$3.9K	+$848.77	48% 895-954 (1849)
Tolkonevminus2	Froglingsavg 41.7¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$834.28	61% 129-82 (211)
VV VVVSSPARB<$100	Froglingsavg 55.7¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$233.78	0% 0-44 (44)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 55.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$197.1
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 55.2¢	$625.03	$588.35	-$36.68
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Team Synapseavg 70.5¢	$1.1K	$596.35	-$496.04	76% 92-29 (121)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	Team Synapseavg 46.7¢	$808.3	$586.6	+$105.5	60% 81-55 (136)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	Froglingsavg 80.2¢	$653.56	$501.01	-$152.55	52% 221-207 (428)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Team Synapseavg 29.1¢	$319.25	$469.6	-$87.74	51% 705-669 (1374)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Froglingsavg 49.6¢	$398.98	$423.95	+$40.92	48% 72042-77747 (149789)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 49.6¢	$203.46	$252.24	+$50.34
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 40.6¢	$181.13	$171.71	-$9.42
BA BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100	Team Synapseavg 44.6¢	$2.9K	$350.12	-$252.5	61% 660-424 (1084)
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 44.6¢	$216.69	$177.49	-$72.92
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 59.4¢	$161.54	$172.63	-$179.58
LR lryyyARB<$100	Froglingsavg 49.3¢	$237.77	$257.45	+$19.67	48% 40299-43258 (83557)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 49.3¢	$135.16	$168.51	+$33.35
└ Team Synapse leg	Team Synapseavg 44.4¢	$102.61	$88.94	-$13.67
XU xuxuntao	Froglingsavg 25.8¢	$103.76	$215.53	+$111.77	60% 135-90 (225)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$14,337.36

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

59%

1035-727 (1762)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$3,228.2

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

46%

680-798 (1478)

Medo3DCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$6,142.33

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

41%

198-288 (486)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$3,058.38

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$848.77

Record

48%

895-954 (1849)

Tolkonevminus2

Froglings

Invested

$1,491.56

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$834.28

Record

61%

129-82 (211)

VVVSSPARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$2,049.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$233.78

Record

0-44 (44)

Both legs:

Froglings$1,423.9955.7¢-$197.1

Team Synapse$625.0355.2¢-$36.68

GooGooGaga1CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$1,092.39

Value

$596.35

PnL

-$496.04

Record

76%

92-29 (121)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$808.3

Value

$586.6

PnL

+$105.5

Record

60%

81-55 (136)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

Froglings

Invested

$653.56

Value

$501.01

PnL

-$152.55

Record

52%

221-207 (428)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$319.25

Value

$469.6

PnL

-$87.74

Record

51%

705-669 (1374)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$398.98

Value

$423.95

PnL

+$40.92

Record

48%

72042-77747 (149789)

Both legs:

Froglings$203.4649.6¢+$50.34

Team Synapse$181.1340.6¢-$9.42

BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$2,895.23

Value

$350.12

PnL

-$252.5

Record

61%

660-424 (1084)

Both legs:

Team Synapse$216.6944.6¢-$72.92

Froglings$161.5459.4¢-$179.58

lryyyARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$237.77

Value

$257.45

PnL

+$19.67

Record

48%

40299-43258 (83557)

Both legs:

Froglings$135.1649.3¢+$33.35

Team Synapse$102.6144.4¢-$13.67

xuxuntao

Froglings

Invested

$103.76

Value

$215.53

PnL

+$111.77

Record

60%

135-90 (225)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.