Dota 2: Froglings vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (83%) · Froglings at 93¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Froglings
6
Froglings 83%
$14.0K
$1.1K
74.1¢ → 93.4¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFroglings at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | Froglingsavg 73¢ | $7.0K | $6.9K | -$95.89 | 45% 403-486 (889) |
UN UNIVERSEMVP | Froglingsavg 73.1¢ | $5.1K | $5.3K | +$1.1K | 17% 14-70 (84) |
GX gxxyy | Froglingsavg 87¢ | $992 | $1.0K | +$11.4 | 68% 474-218 (692) |
RA RandomVibecoder | Froglingsavg 68¢ | $415.41 | $470.96 | +$55.54 | 48% 473-515 (988) |
BA BackTestEoCaraio | Froglingsavg 87.3¢ | $1.1K | $285.02 | -$0.15 | 16% 10-54 (64) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Power Rangersavg 17.6¢ | $67.66 | $43.9 | -$23.76 | 54% 1599-1345 (2944) |
Invested
$7,000
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$95.89
Record
45%
403-486 (889)
Invested
$5,067.45
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
17%
14-70 (84)
Invested
$992
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.4
Record
68%
474-218 (692)
Invested
$415.41
Value
$470.96
PnL
+$55.54
Record
48%
473-515 (988)
Invested
$1,067.98
Value
$285.02
PnL
-$0.15
Record
16%
10-54 (64)
Invested
$67.66
Value
$43.9
PnL
-$23.76
Record
54%
1599-1345 (2944)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.