Dota 2: Froglings vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (33%) · Froglings at 82¢ · $818 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
Froglings
6
Froglings 33%
$818.33
$28.56
77.9¢ → 81.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFroglings at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Froglingsavg 77.9¢ | $456.06 | $478.03 | +$21.97 | 54% 1599-1345 (2944) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | Power Rangersavg 22¢ | $220 | $240 | +$20 | — 4-1 (5) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Power Rangersavg 23.2¢ | $89.23 | $73.08 | -$16.15 | 50% 29-29 (58) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Power Rangersavg 19¢ | $23.1 | $23.1 | +$0 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
 VeryLucky888 | Froglingsavg 75.9¢ | $102.19 | $2.93 | +$2.7 | 48% 208-228 (436) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Power Rangersavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $1.2 | +$0.05 | 48% 406-439 (845) |
Invested
$456.06
Value
$478.03
PnL
+$21.97
Record
54%
1599-1345 (2944)
Invested
$220
Value
$240
PnL
+$20
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$89.23
Value
$73.08
PnL
-$16.15
Record
50%
29-29 (58)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
VeryLucky888Invested
$102.19
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$2.7
Record
48%
208-228 (436)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
406-439 (845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.