Dota 2: Froglings vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (50%) · Froglings at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Froglings
6
Froglings 50%
$2.3K
-$113.24
81.1¢ → 88.9¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFroglings at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | Froglingsavg 81.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$10.03 | 61% 17-11 (28) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR | Nemiga Gamingavg 32.4¢ | $200 | $68.17 | -$131.83 | 47% 443-506 (949) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Froglingsavg 67.6¢ | $45.2 | $59.58 | +$14.38 | 53% 1830-1635 (3465) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Nemiga Gamingavg 16.5¢ | $11.72 | $7.8 | -$3.93 | 23% 36-119 (155) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Froglingsavg 77¢ | $6.75 | $5.74 | -$1.01 | 33% 307-625 (932) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Nemiga Gamingavg 14.9¢ | $3.28 | $2.4 | -$0.88 | 45% 239-290 (529) |
Invested
$2,117.85
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$10.03
Record
61%
17-11 (28)
Invested
$200
Value
$68.17
PnL
-$131.83
Record
47%
443-506 (949)
Invested
$45.2
Value
$59.58
PnL
+$14.38
Record
53%
1830-1635 (3465)
Invested
$11.72
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$3.93
Record
23%
36-119 (155)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$5.74
PnL
-$1.01
Record
33%
307-625 (932)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.88
Record
45%
239-290 (529)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.