Dota 2: Froglings vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

30 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (52%) · LEGION at 100¢ · $171K held · ends Nov 15

Froglings<1¢LEGION>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$171.5K

Combined PnL

$-7.6K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 100¢

+90% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

30 of 58 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings0%

LEGION100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION30 traders

Total Value$157.7K

Total Shares177,592

Combined PnL+$62.3K

Froglings28 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares149,370

Combined PnL$-69.9K

LEGION — 52%Froglings — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 26%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 26% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLEGION 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrLEGION 57% · 30

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 52% · 52

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	LEGIONavg 50.7¢	$10.2K	$20.0K	+$9.8K	47% 483-548 (1031)
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$10.2K	$18.9K	+$9.1K	52% 12-11 (23)
CyberScore.live	LEGIONavg 42.6¢	$9.8K	$17.5K	+$7.7K	54% 44-37 (81)
GX gxxyy	LEGIONavg 67.9¢	$9.0K	$13.2K	+$4.2K	69% 518-231 (749)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	LEGIONavg 41.3¢	$11.6K	$11.4K	+$5.5K	22% 25-89 (114)
handandfacetatto	LEGIONavg 99.9¢	$11.2K	$11.2K	+$7.67	98% 112-2 (114)
Medo3D	LEGIONavg 46.3¢	$4.7K	$10.2K	+$5.4K	12% 36-262 (298)
GE GeorgeRe	LEGIONavg 49.2¢	$7.1K	$9.4K	+$7.3K	53% 727-649 (1376)
RA RandomVibecoder	LEGIONavg 45.6¢	$8.3K	$9.3K	+$1.6K	48% 546-597 (1143)
Hawk.live	LEGIONavg 70.7¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$993.9	57% 702-527 (1229)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LEGIONavg 48.5¢	$3.4K	$4.7K	+$1.3K	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	LEGIONavg 48¢	$2.9K	$4.6K	+$1.7K	5% 16-306 (322)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	LEGIONavg 47.5¢	$2.8K	$4.4K	+$1.7K	16% 43-223 (266)
relativesignificance	LEGIONavg 46.7¢	$3.1K	$3.9K	+$1.5K	55% 172-139 (311)
DO Donghui	LEGIONavg 48¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$949.52	55% 21-17 (38)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	Froglingsavg 49.2¢	$4.3K	$2.6K	$-1.7K	26% 60-167 (227)
CA calm919	LEGIONavg 71.7¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$606.07	23% 30-103 (133)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQCTR	Froglingsavg 55.7¢	$4.6K	$2.1K	$-1.3K	73% 29-11 (40)
A3 a37932699ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$390.19	9% 19-191 (210)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 50¢	$800	$1.2K	+$416
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 25¢	$621.05	$595.24	-$25.81
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	LEGIONavg 42¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$441.13	68% 86-41 (127)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 42¢	$787.03	$1.4K	+$638.71
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 36.7¢	$570.54	$372.96	-$197.58
OM omnibus-076daa	LEGIONavg 48.6¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$541.24	46% 643-756 (1399)
Bignum	LEGIONavg 49¢	$994.7	$1.5K	+$548.1	6% 13-217 (230)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	Froglingsavg 50.8¢	$3.3K	$1.1K	$-1.1K	53% 31-27 (58)
R2 r2d2v2	LEGIONavg 49¢	$705.27	$1.1K	+$388.62	16% 36-190 (226)
DO DotaBotReborn	LEGIONavg 46¢	$464.83	$1.0K	+$540.11	71% 60-25 (85)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

LEGION

Invested

$10,200

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$9.8K

Record

47%

483-548 (1031)

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

LEGION

Invested

$10,187.41

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

CyberScore.live

LEGION

Invested

$9,821.34

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

54%

44-37 (81)

gxxyy

LEGION

Invested

$9,014.15

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

69%

518-231 (749)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

LEGION

Invested

$11,599.82

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

22%

25-89 (114)

handandfacetatto

LEGION

Invested

$11,180.34

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$7.67

Record

98%

112-2 (114)

Medo3D

LEGION

Invested

$4,734.52

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

GeorgeRe

LEGION

Invested

$7,139.54

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

53%

727-649 (1376)

RandomVibecoder

LEGION

Invested

$8,280.57

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

546-597 (1143)

Hawk.live

LEGION

Invested

$6,223.68

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$993.9

Record

57%

702-527 (1229)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LEGION

Invested

$3,359.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

LEGION

Invested

$2,880

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

16-306 (322)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

LEGION

Invested

$2,761.76

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

16%

43-223 (266)

relativesignificance

LEGION

Invested

$3,142.84

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

172-139 (311)

Donghui

LEGION

Invested

$1,627.74

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$949.52

Record

55%

21-17 (38)

qwerqr1251251CTR

Froglings

Invested

$4,300

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

26%

60-167 (227)

calm919

LEGION

Invested

$1,566.48

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$606.07

Record

23%

30-103 (133)

JabamiYumekosRBQCTR

Froglings

Invested

$4,606.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

73%

29-11 (40)

a37932699ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1,421.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$390.19

Record

19-191 (210)

Both legs:

LEGION$80050¢+$416

Froglings$621.0525¢-$25.81

pipipi150ARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1,357.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$441.13

Record

68%

86-41 (127)

Both legs:

LEGION$787.0342¢+$638.71

Froglings$570.5436.7¢-$197.58

omnibus-076daa

LEGION

Invested

$1,178.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$541.24

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

Bignum

LEGION

Invested

$994.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$548.1

Record

13-217 (230)

GooGooGaga1CTR

Froglings

Invested

$3,270.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

31-27 (58)

r2d2v2

LEGION

Invested

$705.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$388.62

Record

16%

36-190 (226)

DotaBotReborn

LEGION

Invested

$464.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$540.11

Record

71%

60-25 (85)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

30 of 58 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

27 traders

Top 2 hold 26%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on LEGION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 26% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLEGION 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrLEGION 57% · 30

Aligned

Hand-pickedLEGION 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LEGION 52% · 52

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.