Dota 2: Froglings vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group A

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (57%) · Froglings at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Froglings61¢Ka4kanarskie cyxariki39¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$227.07

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 61.1¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings61%

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,158

Combined PnL+$4.61

Froglings8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,103

Combined PnL+$222.47

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki — 43%Froglings — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ka4kanarskie cyxariki) and the top 1000 (10 on Froglings) disagree here.

whaleFroglings 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpKa4kanarskie cyxariki 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFroglings 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKa4kanarskie cyxariki 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 38.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.92	49% 567-579 (1146)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Froglingsavg 69.8¢	$1,000	$1.2K	+$218.09	58% 1008-719 (1727)
SL SlickRick123	Froglingsavg 58.2¢	$408.17	$427.93	+$19.76	47% 6232-6941 (13173)
GA Gaditima	Froglingsavg 64.5¢	$367.63	$342.4	-$25.23	47% 8642-9780 (18422)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 37.3¢	$263.99	$251.41	-$12.57	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
└ Ka4kanarskie cyxariki leg	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 37.3¢	$179.6	$187.44	+$7.84
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 80.5¢	$84.39	$63.97	-$20.42
LO lonmi2511	Froglingsavg 56.7¢	$207.76	$223.73	+$15.97	52% 1531-1411 (2942)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 40.9¢	$103.02	$100.64	-$2.38	55% 841-698 (1539)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Froglingsavg 76¢	$47	$37.47	-$9.53	52% 6055-5585 (11640)
forsenxdCTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 29¢	$38	$19.65	-$18.34	53% 1153-1010 (2163)
maytopmayCTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 41.5¢	$16.58	$15.96	-$0.62	60% 327-221 (548)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 38¢	$11.4	$11.69	+$0.29	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 32¢	$8.01	$9.75	+$1.74	57% 20231-15051 (35282)
GT gt7238<$100	Froglingsavg 65¢	$6.5	$8.45	+$1.95	44% 691-867 (1558)
PA Pan9X<$100	Froglingsavg 62¢	$5.08	$5.77	+$0.7	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Froglingsavg 70¢	$5	$4.25	+$0.75	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$1,409.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$23.92

Record

49%

567-579 (1146)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Froglings

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$218.09

Record

58%

1008-719 (1727)

SlickRick123

Froglings

Invested

$408.17

Value

$427.93

PnL

+$19.76

Record

47%

6232-6941 (13173)

Gaditima

Froglings

Invested

$367.63

Value

$342.4

PnL

-$25.23

Record

47%

8642-9780 (18422)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$263.99

Value

$251.41

PnL

-$12.57

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

Both legs:

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki$179.637.3¢+$7.84

Froglings$84.3980.5¢-$20.42

lonmi2511

Froglings

Invested

$207.76

Value

$223.73

PnL

+$15.97

Record

52%

1531-1411 (2942)

Sisyphus-CTR

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$103.02

Value

$100.64

PnL

-$2.38

Record

55%

841-698 (1539)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Froglings

Invested

$47

Value

$37.47

PnL

-$9.53

Record

52%

6055-5585 (11640)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$38

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$18.34

Record

53%

1153-1010 (2163)

maytopmayCTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$16.58

Value

$15.96

PnL

-$0.62

Record

60%

327-221 (548)

sentrioCTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$8.01

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$1.74

Record

57%

20231-15051 (35282)

gt7238<$100

Froglings

Invested

$6.5

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$1.95

Record

44%

691-867 (1558)

Pan9X<$100

Froglings

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$0.7

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ameisgoat11<$100

Froglings

Invested

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Froglings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ka4kanarskie cyxariki) and the top 1000 (10 on Froglings) disagree here.

whaleFroglings 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpKa4kanarskie cyxariki 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFroglings 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKa4kanarskie cyxariki 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Froglings 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.