Dota 2: Froglings vs CyberHero (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group A

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (33%) · Froglings at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Froglings57¢CyberHero43¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$59.92

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 57.5¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings57%

CyberHero43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Froglings2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL+$180.68

CyberHero4 traders

Total Value$997.54

Total Shares2,088

Combined PnL-$120.77

Froglings — 33%CyberHero — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	Froglingsavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$172.32	— 12-7 (19)
BI biying88888CTR	CyberHeroavg 57¢	$824.38	$682.45	-$141.94	36% 113-199 (312)
alpheclabs2CTR	CyberHeroavg 40.9¢	$274.37	$299.47	+$25.1	46% 112-132 (244)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 42.5¢	$179.9	$182.36	+$2.46	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 42.5¢	$135.15	$135.15	+$0
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 54.5¢	$44.75	$47.21	+$2.46
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 58.5¢	$306.95	$104.48	+$0.47	52% 445-417 (862)
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 46¢	$46.01	$55.37	+$15.31
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 58.5¢	$64.41	$49.11	-$14.84
CI cigarettes<$100	Froglingsavg 47¢	$47	$55.36	+$8.36	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 57.6¢	$14.4	$11.16	-$3.24	32% 282-611 (893)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 51.5¢	$5.15	$4.46	-$0.69	48% 659-706 (1365)

JuiceFarm

Froglings

Invested

$1,078.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$172.32

Record

—

12-7 (19)

biying88888CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$824.38

Value

$682.45

PnL

-$141.94

Record

36%

113-199 (312)

alpheclabs2CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$274.37

Value

$299.47

PnL

+$25.1

Record

46%

112-132 (244)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$179.9

Value

$182.36

PnL

+$2.46

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

Both legs:

CyberHero$135.1542.5¢+$0

Froglings$44.7554.5¢+$2.46

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$306.95

Value

$104.48

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Both legs:

Froglings$46.0146¢+$15.31

CyberHero$64.4158.5¢-$14.84

cigarettes<$100

Froglings

Invested

$47

Value

$55.36

PnL

+$8.36

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$14.4

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$3.24

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Pan9XCTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$5.15

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.