Dota 2: Cooman Team vs iLTW TEAM - Game 1 Winner

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold iLTW TEAM (100%) · iLTW TEAM at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Cooman Team<1¢iLTW TEAM>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

iLTW TEAM

Consensus Traders

iLTW TEAM 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutraliLTW TEAM at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

iLTW TEAM

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cooman Team0%

iLTW TEAM100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

iLTW TEAM7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,433

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	iLTW TEAMavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.64	99% 11845-75 (11920)
CR Crazyboy77ARB<$100	Cooman Teamavg 33¢	$791.99	$1.2K	+$407.99	52% 193-176 (369)
└ Cooman Team leg	Cooman Teamavg 33¢	$396	$599.99	+$204
└ iLTW TEAM leg	iLTW TEAMavg 33¢	$395.99	$599.99	+$204
VO Volodyabandit	iLTW TEAMavg 97.4¢	$2.2K	$740.03	$-1.4K	75% 283-93 (376)
RO Rock.San	iLTW TEAMavg 99.1¢	$495.5	$499.75	+$4.25	90% 12225-1422 (13647)
NO NotJump	iLTW TEAMavg 99.1¢	$495.5	$499.75	+$4.25	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
MA MarquisDeMott	iLTW TEAMavg 99.1¢	$152.61	$153.92	+$1.31	98% 3495-83 (3578)
TO topdogbigboi	iLTW TEAMavg 29.5¢	$58.85	$130.97	+$72.11	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
poshposhARB<$100	Cooman Teamavg 55.9¢	$102.26	$105.94	+$3.68	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
└ Cooman Team leg	Cooman Teamavg 55.9¢	$73.99	$73.4	-$0.59
└ iLTW TEAM leg	iLTW TEAMavg 38.7¢	$28.27	$32.54	+$4.27
alpheclabs2<$100	iLTW TEAMavg 29¢	$24.07	$41.5	+$17.43	47% 1103-1248 (2351)

looppau

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$1,290.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.64

Record

99%

11845-75 (11920)

Crazyboy77ARB<$100

Cooman Team

Invested

$791.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$407.99

Record

52%

193-176 (369)

Both legs:

Cooman Team$39633¢+$204

iLTW TEAM$395.9933¢+$204

Volodyabandit

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$2,245.51

Value

$740.03

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

75%

283-93 (376)

Rock.San

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$495.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$4.25

Record

90%

12225-1422 (13647)

NotJump

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$495.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$4.25

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

MarquisDeMott

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$152.61

Value

$153.92

PnL

+$1.31

Record

98%

3495-83 (3578)

topdogbigboi

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$58.85

Value

$130.97

PnL

+$72.11

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

poshposhARB<$100

Cooman Team

Invested

$102.26

Value

$105.94

PnL

+$3.68

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

Both legs:

Cooman Team$73.9955.9¢-$0.59

iLTW TEAM$28.2738.7¢+$4.27

alpheclabs2<$100

iLTW TEAM

Invested

$24.07

Value

$41.5

PnL

+$17.43

Record

47%

1103-1248 (2351)

Research grade

NeutraliLTW TEAM at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

iLTW TEAM

7 of 7 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that iLTW TEAM wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.