Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Zero Tenacity (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (55%) · CyberHero at 0.1¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 11

CyberHero<1¢Zero Tenacity>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero0%

Zero Tenacity100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero6 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares25,934

Combined PnL$-9.0K

Zero Tenacity5 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares9,867

Combined PnL+$7.7K

CyberHero — 55%Zero Tenacity — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	CyberHeroavg 65.4¢	$12.6K	$7.5K	$-5.0K	48% 500-546 (1046)
MA madar78	Zero Tenacityavg 42.9¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$4.3K	35% 23-42 (65)
SI Sisyphus-	Zero Tenacityavg 29.8¢	$940.71	$3.1K	+$2.2K	57% 522-399 (921)
Medo3DCTR	CyberHeroavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$217.15	8% 21-231 (252)
CA calculate10	Zero Tenacityavg 35.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$914.83	24% 32-104 (136)
PO PourpelNourpel	Zero Tenacityavg 30¢	$299.85	$519.74	+$219.89	53% 40-36 (76)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 70.8¢	$159.48	$202.97	+$43.48	53% 1818-1628 (3446)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 27.5¢	$78.16	$147.8	+$69.65
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 70.8¢	$81.33	$55.17	-$26.16
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	CyberHeroavg 73.8¢	$577.19	$193.18	-$380.45	56% 3856-3022 (6878)
XU xuxuntaoCTR	CyberHeroavg 63¢	$3.4K	$26.84	$-3.4K	39% 33-51 (84)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 79.3¢	$13.15	$10.95	-$2.2	32% 295-621 (916)
BL bloodmaster<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 18¢	$1.1	$4.57	+$3.48	—
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 1¢	$0.39	$1.56	+$1.17	2% 3-158 (161)

RandomVibecoderCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$12,552.33

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

48%

500-546 (1046)

madar78

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,826.5

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

35%

23-42 (65)

Sisyphus-

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$940.71

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

57%

522-399 (921)

Medo3DCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$1,994.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$217.15

Record

21-231 (252)

calculate10

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,292.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$914.83

Record

24%

32-104 (136)

PourpelNourpel

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$299.85

Value

$519.74

PnL

+$219.89

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$159.48

Value

$202.97

PnL

+$43.48

Record

53%

1818-1628 (3446)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$78.1627.5¢+$69.65

CyberHero$81.3370.8¢-$26.16

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$577.19

Value

$193.18

PnL

-$380.45

Record

56%

3856-3022 (6878)

xuxuntaoCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$3,379.92

Value

$26.84

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

39%

33-51 (84)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$13.15

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$2.2

Record

32%

295-621 (916)

bloodmaster<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1.1

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$3.48

Record

—

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$0.39

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$1.17

Record

3-158 (161)

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.