Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Power Rangers (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Power Rangers (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group A

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (50%) · CyberHero at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

CyberHero49¢Power Rangers51¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$173.37

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 49¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero49%

Power Rangers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Power Rangers4 traders

Total Value$707.53

Total Shares1,347

Combined PnL+$279.95

CyberHero4 traders

Total Value$558.49

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL-$106.57

Power Rangers — 50%CyberHero — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 54.4¢	$924.83	$824.01	-$24.37	25% 171-513 (684)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 54.4¢	$612.18	$556.63	-$55.55
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 46.2¢	$244.64	$267.38	+$31.18
eblomixer	Power Rangersavg 31.7¢	$393.09	$675.22	+$282.13	0% 1-200 (201)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 64.1¢	$607.1	$499.44	-$107.66	54% 1638-1406 (3044)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 64.1¢	$508.08	$392.59	-$115.5
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 46.8¢	$99.02	$106.85	+$7.83
GA GaditimaARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 71.9¢	$450.15	$389.64	-$4.96	48% 77-83 (160)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 32.5¢	$138.27	$225.14	+$82.2
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 71.9¢	$251.66	$164.5	-$87.16
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	CyberHeroavg 61.7¢	$348.27	$293.56	-$54.71	56% 3810-2979 (6789)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 63.6¢	$277.72	$278.25	+$0.52	8% 18-201 (219)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 36.5¢	$102.02	$149.73	+$47.71
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 63.6¢	$175.71	$128.51	-$47.19
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 69.4¢	$200	$142.63	-$57.37	46% 421-493 (914)
alpheclabs2CTR	CyberHeroavg 63¢	$115.79	$121.31	+$5.51	45% 79-95 (174)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Power Rangersavg 34¢	$27.57	$24.32	-$3.24	46% 33-39 (72)
LR lryyy<$100	Power Rangersavg 24¢	$5.28	$6.49	+$1.21	50% 171-170 (341)
PA Pan9X<$100	Power Rangersavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.5	-$0.15	49% 435-456 (891)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 67¢	$1	$0.99	-$0.01	5% 23-412 (435)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$924.83

Value

$824.01

PnL

-$24.37

Record

25%

171-513 (684)

Both legs:

CyberHero$612.1854.4¢-$55.55

Power Rangers$244.6446.2¢+$31.18

eblomixer

Power Rangers

Invested

$393.09

Value

$675.22

PnL

+$282.13

Record

1-200 (201)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$607.1

Value

$499.44

PnL

-$107.66

Record

54%

1638-1406 (3044)

Both legs:

CyberHero$508.0864.1¢-$115.5

Power Rangers$99.0246.8¢+$7.83

GaditimaARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$450.15

Value

$389.64

PnL

-$4.96

Record

48%

77-83 (160)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$138.2732.5¢+$82.2

CyberHero$251.6671.9¢-$87.16

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$348.27

Value

$293.56

PnL

-$54.71

Record

56%

3810-2979 (6789)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$277.72

Value

$278.25

PnL

+$0.52

Record

18-201 (219)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$102.0236.5¢+$47.71

CyberHero$175.7163.6¢-$47.19

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$200

Value

$142.63

PnL

-$57.37

Record

46%

421-493 (914)

alpheclabs2CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$115.79

Value

$121.31

PnL

+$5.51

Record

45%

79-95 (174)

glennyorkshire<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$27.57

Value

$24.32

PnL

-$3.24

Record

46%

33-39 (72)

lryyy<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$5.28

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

171-170 (341)

Pan9X<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

435-456 (891)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

23-412 (435)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 51%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.