Dota 2: CyberHero vs PuckChamp (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (80%) · CyberHero at 87¢ · $952 held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
CyberHero
5
CyberHero 80%
$951.75
$6.69
86.8¢ → 86.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCyberHero at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | CyberHeroavg 87¢ | $600 | $600 | +$0 | 0% 0-78 (78) |
 VeryLucky888 | CyberHeroavg 85.7¢ | $144.77 | $146.94 | +$2.16 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | PuckChampavg 13¢ | $117.65 | $122.17 | +$4.52 | — |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | CyberHeroavg 87¢ | $65.24 | $65.24 | +$0 | 34% 158-308 (466) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | CyberHeroavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $17.4 | +$0 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
BasquetipsterInvested
$600
Value
$600
PnL
+$0
Record
0%
0-78 (78)
VeryLucky888Invested
$144.77
Value
$146.94
PnL
+$2.16
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$117.65
Value
$122.17
PnL
+$4.52
Record
—
Invested
$65.24
Value
$65.24
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
158-308 (466)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.