Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Inner Circle (83%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (43%) · CyberHero at 17¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 11

CyberHero17¢Inner Circle83¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$-12.9K

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 17¢

-69% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero17%

Inner Circle83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero3 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares35,033

Combined PnL$-12.3K

Inner Circle4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,461

Combined PnL-$521.89

CyberHero — 43%Inner Circle — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCyberHero 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 42.3¢	$9.9K	$9.4K	+$846.03	48% 491-535 (1026)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 41.9¢	$3.6K	$6.8K	+$3.9K
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 42.3¢	$5.6K	$2.6K	$-3.0K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 61.7¢	$11.7K	$3.7K	$-8.0K	46% 426-495 (921)
Medo3DCTR	CyberHeroavg 46.4¢	$7.5K	$3.1K	$-4.3K	6% 14-216 (230)
QW qwerqr1251251	Inner Circleavg 71.1¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$887.15	15% 25-143 (168)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Inner Circleavg 56.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$55.81	56% 3836-3007 (6843)
CA calculate10	Inner Circleavg 48.5¢	$1.6K	$879.78	+$352.6	22% 26-91 (117)
PA pauleta23	Inner Circleavg 60¢	$200	$268.47	+$68.47	28% 179-465 (644)
MA madar78CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 20¢	$0.27	$0.34	+$0.07	35% 19-35 (54)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$9,933.36

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$846.03

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$3,552.741.9¢+$3.9K

CyberHero$5,623.5242.3¢$-3.0K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$11,700

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

Medo3DCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$7,467.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

14-216 (230)

qwerqr1251251

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,960.76

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$887.15

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,269.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$55.81

Record

56%

3836-3007 (6843)

calculate10

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,581.23

Value

$879.78

PnL

+$352.6

Record

22%

26-91 (117)

pauleta23

Inner Circle

Invested

$200

Value

$268.47

PnL

+$68.47

Record

28%

179-465 (644)

madar78CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCyberHero 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCyberHero 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.