Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Inner Circle (56%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (25%) · CyberHero at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
CyberHero
4
CyberHero 25%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$7.28
Research grade
NeutralCyberHero at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | CyberHeroavg 56.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$19.14 | 31% 274-610 (884) |
| └ CyberHero leg | CyberHeroavg 56.4¢ | $695.6 | $548.38 | -$147.22 | |
| └ Inner Circle leg | Inner Circleavg 43.4¢ | $359.59 | $460.3 | +$128.08 | |
GT gt7238CTR | CyberHeroavg 66.5¢ | $640.47 | $654.74 | +$14.27 | 3% 16-448 (464) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | CyberHeroavg 67.5¢ | $483.02 | $474.84 | -$8.18 | 56% 3836-3005 (6841) |
| └ Inner Circle leg | Inner Circleavg 32.2¢ | $147.33 | $253.6 | +$106.27 | |
| └ CyberHero leg | CyberHeroavg 67.5¢ | $335.69 | $221.24 | -$114.45 | |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Inner Circleavg 37¢ | $148 | $128 | -$20 | 14% 139-827 (966) |
CA calculate10<$100 | Inner Circleavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $20.25 | -$1.25 | 22% 25-90 (115) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Inner Circleavg 35¢ | $3.5 | $3.2 | -$0.3 | 48% 654-703 (1357) |
Invested
$1,154.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$19.14
Record
31%
274-610 (884)
Both legs:
Invested
$640.47
Value
$654.74
PnL
+$14.27
Record
3%
16-448 (464)
Invested
$483.02
Value
$474.84
PnL
-$8.18
Record
56%
3836-3005 (6841)
Both legs:
Invested
$148
Value
$128
PnL
-$20
Record
14%
139-827 (966)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$20.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
22%
25-90 (115)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.3
Record
48%
654-703 (1357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.