Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold CyberHero, while the market favors Ka4kanarskie cyxariki (100%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: CyberHero vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 1 Winner

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (53%) · CyberHero at 0.1¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 7

CyberHero<1¢Ka4kanarskie cyxariki>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 53%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Ka4kanarskie cyxariki 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero0%

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki7 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares15,890

Combined PnL+$6.0K

CyberHero8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares29,726

Combined PnL$-14.9K

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki — 47%CyberHero — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeRe	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 46¢	$4.3K	$8.6K	+$4.3K	54% 1138-979 (2117)
RA RandomVibecoder	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 54.3¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$1.0K	48% 855-909 (1764)
Medo3D	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 44¢	$547.51	$1.2K	+$696.21	41% 182-264 (446)
R2 r2d2v2	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 47¢	$600	$580.85	-$19.15	54% 303-255 (558)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	CyberHeroavg 48.1¢	$376.29	$373.9	-$2.4	53% 1203-1061 (2264)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	CyberHeroavg 33¢	$330	$355	+$25	53% 206-183 (389)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	CyberHeroavg 54.3¢	$2.2K	$185.94	$-2.1K	50% 564-572 (1136)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 51.4¢	$104.87	$159.86	+$54.99	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	CyberHeroavg 55¢	$251.77	$109.85	-$141.92	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
PA pauleta23<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 75¢	$10	$13.33	+$3.33	66% 24445-12494 (36939)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	CyberHeroavg 54¢	$12.4K	$11.47	$-12.4K	58% 955-684 (1639)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 57¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
LR lryyy<$100	Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 67¢	$3.35	$5	+$1.65	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	CyberHeroavg 45¢	$299	$0.33	-$298.67	53% 667-598 (1265)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 33.5¢	$73.2	$0.11	-$73.09	48% 292-320 (612)

GeorgeRe

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$4,329.03

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

54%

1138-979 (2117)

RandomVibecoder

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$2,773.96

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Medo3D

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$547.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$696.21

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

r2d2v2

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$600

Value

$580.85

PnL

-$19.15

Record

54%

303-255 (558)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$376.29

Value

$373.9

PnL

-$2.4

Record

53%

1203-1061 (2264)

Crazyboy77CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$330

Value

$355

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

206-183 (389)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$2,243.24

Value

$185.94

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

564-572 (1136)

ferrariChampions2026

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$104.87

Value

$159.86

PnL

+$54.99

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

BillBenter2026CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$251.77

Value

$109.85

PnL

-$141.92

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

pauleta23<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$10

Value

$13.33

PnL

+$3.33

Record

66%

24445-12494 (36939)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

CyberHero

Invested

$12,399.93

Value

$11.47

PnL

$-12.4K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

lryyy<$100

Ka4kanarskie cyxariki

Invested

$3.35

Value

PnL

+$1.65

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

PourpelNourpelCTR

CyberHero

Invested

$299

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$298.67

Record

53%

667-598 (1265)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$73.2

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$73.09

Record

48%

292-320 (612)

Research grade

AvoidCyberHero at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Ka4kanarskie cyxariki 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.