Dota 2: CyberHero vs Team Allied - Game 1 Winner

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (73%) · CyberHero at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

CyberHero88¢Team Allied12¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$185.25

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 87.5¢

+13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CyberHero88%

Team Allied13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,932

Combined PnL+$94.77

Team Allied3 traders

Total Value$328.8

Total Shares2,843

Combined PnL-$280.03

CyberHero — 73%Team Allied — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCyberHero 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	CyberHeroavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.19	48% 32-34 (66)
R2 r2d2v2	CyberHeroavg 76¢	$554.75	$645.99	+$91.24	12% 24-178 (202)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 50¢	$525	$569.37	+$44.37	54% 428-364 (792)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 50¢	$262.5	$406.62	+$144.12
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 50¢	$262.5	$162.75	-$99.75
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Team Alliedavg 22.4¢	$419.98	$215.31	-$204.66	48% 510-560 (1070)
TO TommyLeePeeca	CyberHeroavg 82.9¢	$157.08	$154.09	-$2.98	14% 33-207 (240)
poshposh	CyberHeroavg 79.6¢	$149.28	$129.44	-$19.85	47% 509-574 (1083)
JE jelly2026	CyberHeroavg 80.5¢	$231.29	$91.13	+$20.85	50% 51-51 (102)
38 38791873984189<$100	CyberHeroavg 80.2¢	$84.96	$82.1	-$2.86	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	Team Alliedavg 23.7¢	$139.54	$67.79	-$71.74	32% 10-21 (31)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 13¢	$49.32	$45.69	-$3.63	45% 188-231 (419)
LR lryyy<$100	CyberHeroavg 82¢	$12.6	$13.02	+$0.42	44% 375-478 (853)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CyberHeroavg 82¢	$4.1	$3.87	-$0.23	38% 482-799 (1281)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

CyberHero

Invested

$1,260.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.19

Record

48%

32-34 (66)

r2d2v2

CyberHero

Invested

$554.75

Value

$645.99

PnL

+$91.24

Record

12%

24-178 (202)

NotJumpARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$525

Value

$569.37

PnL

+$44.37

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

CyberHero$262.550¢+$144.12

Team Allied$262.550¢-$99.75

RandomVibecoderCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$419.98

Value

$215.31

PnL

-$204.66

Record

48%

510-560 (1070)

TommyLeePeeca

CyberHero

Invested

$157.08

Value

$154.09

PnL

-$2.98

Record

14%

33-207 (240)

poshposh

CyberHero

Invested

$149.28

Value

$129.44

PnL

-$19.85

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

jelly2026

CyberHero

Invested

$231.29

Value

$91.13

PnL

+$20.85

Record

50%

51-51 (102)

38791873984189<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$84.96

Value

$82.1

PnL

-$2.86

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

MrConsistencyCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$139.54

Value

$67.79

PnL

-$71.74

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$49.32

Value

$45.69

PnL

-$3.63

Record

45%

188-231 (419)

lryyy<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$12.6

Value

$13.02

PnL

+$0.42

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

ameisgoat11<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

482-799 (1281)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCyberHero 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.