Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold BetBoom Team, while the market favors Astra Invicta (52%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold BetBoom Team (100%) · BetBoom Team at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
BetBoom Team
3
BetBoom Team 100%
$1.9K
$26.02
47.5¢ → 48¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBetBoom Team at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Astra Invicta 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO johnsonboyyCTR | BetBoom Teamavg 49¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$25.71 | 44% 35-44 (79) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 45¢ | $450 | $480 | +$35 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | BetBoom Teamavg 44¢ | $163.49 | $178.35 | +$16.72 | 47% 2366-2637 (5003) |
Invested
$1,259.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$25.71
Record
44%
35-44 (79)
Invested
$450
Value
$480
PnL
+$35
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$163.49
Value
$178.35
PnL
+$16.72
Record
47%
2366-2637 (5003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.