Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DO KONCA, while the market favors Aurora (69%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Aurora vs DO KONCA (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold DO KONCA (50%) · DO KONCA at 32¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Aurora69¢DO KONCA31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DO KONCA

Consensus Traders

DO KONCA 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.55

Smart Money Entry

32.8¢ → 31.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora69%

DO KONCA32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DO KONCA5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares13,563

Combined PnL+$7.63

Aurora5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,804

Combined PnL-$10.18

DO KONCA — 50%Aurora — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on DO KONCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAurora 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	DO KONCAavg 33¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$0	61% 1202-764 (1966)
JU JuiceFarm	Auroraavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$20	54% 59-50 (109)
GA GaditimaCTR	DO KONCAavg 31¢	$434	$441	+$7	49% 386-404 (790)
BI biying99999	Auroraavg 66¢	$276.03	$280.22	+$4.18	40% 152-227 (379)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Auroraavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 50¢	$100	$132	+$32
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 50¢	$100	$66	-$34
TH thatsabing0	Auroraavg 66.8¢	$185.91	$190.54	+$4.63	62% 268-161 (429)
VeryLucky888<$100	Auroraavg 66¢	$67.86	$68.91	+$1.06	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
poshposhCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 31¢	$26.1	$26.52	+$0.42	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
VI VillsonCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 31¢	$16.31	$16.57	+$0.26	4% 4-100 (104)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Auroraavg 66¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	43% 855-1138 (1993)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	DO KONCAavg 32¢	$3.2	$3.15	-$0.05	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

vibing123CTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$3,965.39

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

JuiceFarm

Aurora

Invested

$1,339.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$20

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

GaditimaCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$434

Value

$441

PnL

+$7

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

biying99999

Aurora

Invested

$276.03

Value

$280.22

PnL

+$4.18

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Invested

$185.91

Value

$190.54

PnL

+$4.63

Record

62%

268-161 (429)

VeryLucky888<$100

Aurora

Invested

$67.86

Value

$68.91

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

poshposhCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$26.1

Value

$26.52

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

VillsonCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$16.31

Value

$16.57

PnL

+$0.26

Record

4-100 (104)

ameisgoat11<$100

Aurora

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

855-1138 (1993)

Pan9XCTR<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Aurora 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on DO KONCA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAurora 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Aurora 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DO KONCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.