Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

29 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (54%) · GamerLegion at 99¢ · $114K held · ends Nov 12

Aurora1¢GamerLegion99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$113.8K

Combined PnL

$16.8K

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 98.7¢

+98% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

29 of 54 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora1%

GamerLegion99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion29 traders

Total Value$106.2K

Total Shares110,871

Combined PnL+$50.2K

Aurora25 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares83,023

Combined PnL$-33.5K

GamerLegion — 54%Aurora — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGamerLegion 83% · 6

Aligned

sniperAurora 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrGamerLegion 59% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 67% · 48

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CyberScore.live	GamerLegionavg 43¢	$9.4K	$19.4K	+$10.0K	52% 27-25 (52)
SI Sisyphus-	GamerLegionavg 51.3¢	$10.0K	$19.3K	+$9.3K	57% 530-402 (932)
GE GeorgeRe	GamerLegionavg 48.4¢	$8.1K	$16.6K	+$8.5K	53% 706-637 (1343)
relativesignificance	GamerLegionavg 46.3¢	$4.1K	$8.8K	+$4.7K	56% 150-119 (269)
Medo3D	GamerLegionavg 45.3¢	$3.5K	$7.4K	+$3.9K	9% 25-239 (264)
Skritopoolniy	GamerLegionavg 47¢	$3.2K	$6.8K	+$3.6K	7% 27-368 (395)
RA RandomVibecoder	GamerLegionavg 37.8¢	$1.9K	$4.4K	+$2.5K	48% 510-560 (1070)
Sunshine.Smile	GamerLegionavg 50¢	$2.2K	$3.9K	+$1.7K	— 0-1 (1)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Auroraavg 38.4¢	$4.3K	$3.0K	$-1.2K	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 46.9¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.0K
└ Aurora leg	Auroraavg 38.4¢	$3.1K	$894.2	$-2.2K
VV VVVSSP	GamerLegionavg 45¢	$1.0K	$2.3K	+$1.2K	28% 23-60 (83)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	GamerLegionavg 64¢	$3.4K	$2.1K	-$114.35	— 1-0 (1)
WH whosay	GamerLegionavg 65.1¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$703.02	69% 27-12 (39)
Tolkonevminus2	GamerLegionavg 94.4¢	$5.7K	$1.9K	+$119.44	42% 47-65 (112)
FA facaigege	GamerLegionavg 44¢	$704	$1.6K	+$874.39	50% 11-11 (22)
BA babyboy9	GamerLegionavg 68.9¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$432.67	67% 24-12 (36)
XU xuxuntao	GamerLegionavg 85¢	$1,000	$1.2K	+$160.59	39% 34-53 (87)
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620	GamerLegionavg 71.2¢	$830.35	$1.2K	+$320.12	49% 38-39 (77)
maytopmay	GamerLegionavg 53.2¢	$539.89	$1.0K	+$461.3	17% 41-201 (242)
Hawk.live	GamerLegionavg 74¢	$789.99	$999.99	+$210	57% 670-514 (1184)
NO NotJumpCTR	Auroraavg 39.1¢	$1.7K	$974.87	+$149.87	54% 428-364 (792)
PI pipipi150	GamerLegionavg 59¢	$684.87	$892.44	+$207.57	65% 36-19 (55)
dodsterbotCTR	Auroraavg 48.2¢	$3.5K	$840.34	$-2.7K	45% 499-611 (1110)
MR MrConsistency	GamerLegionavg 53¢	$449.99	$836.89	+$386.9	32% 10-21 (31)
PO PourpelNourpel	GamerLegionavg 50.1¢	$307.89	$606.64	+$298.75	55% 51-41 (92)
AU autob2CTR	Auroraavg 35¢	$1.1K	$548.39	-$549.73	52% 33-30 (63)

CyberScore.live

GamerLegion

Invested

$9,378.62

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$10.0K

Record

52%

27-25 (52)

Sisyphus-

GamerLegion

Invested

$10,041.21

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

57%

530-402 (932)

GeorgeRe

GamerLegion

Invested

$8,139.45

Value

$16.6K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

53%

706-637 (1343)

relativesignificance

GamerLegion

Invested

$4,139.39

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

56%

150-119 (269)

Medo3D

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,491.08

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

25-239 (264)

Skritopoolniy

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,244.8

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

27-368 (395)

RandomVibecoder

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,884.75

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

48%

510-560 (1070)

Sunshine.Smile

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,200

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Aurora

Invested

$4,251.18

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$1,132.9246.9¢+$1.0K

Aurora$3,118.2638.4¢$-2.2K

VVVSSP

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,042.04

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

28%

23-60 (83)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

GamerLegion

Invested

$3,352.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$114.35

Record

—

1-0 (1)

whosay

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,364.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$703.02

Record

69%

27-12 (39)

Tolkonevminus2

GamerLegion

Invested

$5,713.33

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$119.44

Record

42%

47-65 (112)

facaigege

GamerLegion

Invested

$704

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$874.39

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

babyboy9

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$432.67

Record

67%

24-12 (36)

xuxuntao

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$160.59

Record

39%

34-53 (87)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620

GamerLegion

Invested

$830.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$320.12

Record

49%

38-39 (77)

maytopmay

GamerLegion

Invested

$539.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$461.3

Record

17%

41-201 (242)

Hawk.live

GamerLegion

Invested

$789.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$210

Record

57%

670-514 (1184)

NotJumpCTR

Aurora

Invested

$1,688.67

Value

$974.87

PnL

+$149.87

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

pipipi150

GamerLegion

Invested

$684.87

Value

$892.44

PnL

+$207.57

Record

65%

36-19 (55)

dodsterbotCTR

Aurora

Invested

$3,524.84

Value

$840.34

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

45%

499-611 (1110)

MrConsistency

GamerLegion

Invested

$449.99

Value

$836.89

PnL

+$386.9

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

PourpelNourpel

GamerLegion

Invested

$307.89

Value

$606.64

PnL

+$298.75

Record

55%

51-41 (92)

autob2CTR

Aurora

Invested

$1,098.12

Value

$548.39

PnL

-$549.73

Record

52%

33-30 (63)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

29 of 54 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGamerLegion 83% · 6

Aligned

sniperAurora 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrGamerLegion 59% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 67% · 48

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.