Dota 2: Aurora vs CyberHero (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora (70%) · Aurora at 93¢ · $539 held · ends Nov 15

Aurora93¢CyberHero7¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora

Consensus Traders

Aurora 70%

Total Value

$539.27

Combined PnL

$28.26

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 92.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora93%

CyberHero8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora7 traders

Total Value$472.15

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$31.39

CyberHero3 traders

Total Value$67.13

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$3.12

Aurora — 70%CyberHero — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11	Auroraavg 87.7¢	$194.57	$205.19	+$10.62	41% 702-1012 (1714)
VO Volodyabandit	Auroraavg 91¢	$100	$101.65	+$1.65	63% 30-18 (48)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Auroraavg 82.9¢	$201.99	$80.16	+$14.82	21% 60-226 (286)
dips.<$100	Auroraavg 86¢	$43	$43.75	+$0.75	47% 993-1122 (2115)
poshposhCTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 13.4¢	$39.76	$38.47	-$1.29	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
VeryLucky888	Auroraavg 84.6¢	$232.75	$25.55	+$3.45	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 15¢	$17.49	$15.16	-$2.33	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	CyberHeroavg 13¢	$13	$13.5	+$0.5	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Auroraavg 86¢	$9.87	$10.05	+$0.17	64% 628-348 (976)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Auroraavg 86¢	$5.87	$5.8	-$0.07	63% 217-130 (347)

ameisgoat11

Aurora

Invested

$194.57

Value

$205.19

PnL

+$10.62

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

Volodyabandit

Aurora

Invested

$100

Value

$101.65

PnL

+$1.65

Record

63%

30-18 (48)

TommyLeePeeca

Aurora

Invested

$201.99

Value

$80.16

PnL

+$14.82

Record

21%

60-226 (286)

dips.<$100

Aurora

Invested

$43

Value

$43.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

poshposhCTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$39.76

Value

$38.47

PnL

-$1.29

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

VeryLucky888

Aurora

Invested

$232.75

Value

$25.55

PnL

+$3.45

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

38791873984189CTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$17.49

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$2.33

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

cigarettesCTR<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$13

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

suitcase6628<$100

Aurora

Invested

$9.87

Value

$10.05

PnL

+$0.17

Record

64%

628-348 (976)

thatsabing0<$100

Aurora

Invested

$5.87

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.07

Record

63%

217-130 (347)

Research grade

NeutralAurora at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.