Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold angry birds, while the market favors Zero Tenacity (54%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: angry birds vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold angry birds (33%) · angry birds at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12

angry birds47¢Zero Tenacity53¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

angry birds

Consensus Traders

angry birds 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

-$556.04

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 46.5¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

angry birds47%

Zero Tenacity54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

angry birds3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,732

Combined PnL-$210.9

Zero Tenacity6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,599

Combined PnL-$345.14

angry birds — 33%Zero Tenacity — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 45.6¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$545.62	48% 513-560 (1073)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 45.6¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$149.67
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 44¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$395.95
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	angry birdsavg 54¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	-$31.59	30% 37-86 (123)
poshposh	Zero Tenacityavg 55.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$129.62	47% 522-581 (1103)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	angry birdsavg 61.8¢	$1.1K	$591.37	-$83.6	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 61.8¢	$294.63	$316.86	-$89.15
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 32.1¢	$263.33	$274.52	+$5.55
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$504	-$21	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 50¢	$262.5	$241.5	-$21
AN anyjezz	Zero Tenacityavg 57.7¢	$509.16	$485.71	-$23.44	27% 6-16 (22)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	angry birdsavg 60.9¢	$637.99	$482.01	-$155.98	63% 25-15 (40)
NO nomoredream	Zero Tenacityavg 48.5¢	$860.96	$464.28	-$149.93	33% 39-78 (117)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	angry birdsavg 49.8¢	$353.32	$330	-$23.33	64% 36-20 (56)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 41.9¢	$147.29	$123.69	+$4.71	41% 251-365 (616)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 39.3¢	$34.8	$62.86	+$31.81
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 41.9¢	$87.94	$60.83	-$27.1
PO pol2131	Zero Tenacityavg 41¢	$164	$122	-$42	43% 26-34 (60)
PA pauleta23<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 39.9¢	$22.33	$24.36	+$2.03	34% 277-534 (811)
PA Pan9X<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 59.7¢	$13.44	$11.27	-$2.18	49% 1072-1133 (2205)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$5,392.25

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$545.62

Record

48%

513-560 (1073)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$3,017.7945.6¢+$149.67

angry birds$2,045.5644¢+$395.95

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

angry birds

Invested

$3,631.98

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$31.59

Record

30%

37-86 (123)

poshposh

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,237.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$129.62

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

38791873984189ARB<$100

angry birds

Invested

$1,123.38

Value

$591.37

PnL

-$83.6

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

Both legs:

angry birds$294.6361.8¢-$89.15

Zero Tenacity$263.3332.1¢+$5.55

NotJumpARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$504

PnL

-$21

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$262.550¢+$0

angry birds$262.550¢-$21

anyjezz

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$509.16

Value

$485.71

PnL

-$23.44

Record

27%

6-16 (22)

JuiceFarmCTR

angry birds

Invested

$637.99

Value

$482.01

PnL

-$155.98

Record

63%

25-15 (40)

nomoredream

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$860.96

Value

$464.28

PnL

-$149.93

Record

33%

39-78 (117)

DotaBotRebornCTR

angry birds

Invested

$353.32

Value

$330

PnL

-$23.33

Record

64%

36-20 (56)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$147.29

Value

$123.69

PnL

+$4.71

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

Both legs:

angry birds$34.839.3¢+$31.81

Zero Tenacity$87.9441.9¢-$27.1

pol2131

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$164

Value

$122

PnL

-$42

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

pauleta23<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$22.33

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$2.03

Record

34%

277-534 (811)

Pan9X<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$13.44

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$2.18

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that angry birds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.