Dota 2: angry birds vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 1 Winner
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold angry birds (63%) · angry birds at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
angry birds
8
angry birds 63%
$12.5K
$1.2K
47.5¢ → 100¢
+110% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Neutralangry birds at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwerqr1251251 | angry birdsavg 71.7¢ | $5.4K | $6.8K | +$1.8K | 71% 341-142 (483) |
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 | angry birdsavg 29.4¢ | $2.3K | $3.9K | +$1.6K | 59% 1036-727 (1763) |
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266 | angry birdsavg 43.5¢ | $925.82 | $1.1K | +$138.14 | 67% 642-313 (955) |
R2 r2d2v2 | angry birdsavg 37¢ | $549.99 | $743.24 | +$193.24 | 55% 321-267 (588) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | angry birdsavg 67¢ | $10 | $14.92 | +$4.92 | 65% 25736-13843 (39579) |
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR | Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 46.7¢ | $1.9K | $2.05 | $-1.9K | 64% 131-74 (205) |
 Medo3DCTR | Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 28.8¢ | $311.08 | $0.54 | -$310.54 | 41% 198-289 (487) |
 Hawk.liveCTR | Ka4kanarskie cyxarikiavg 39.2¢ | $274.67 | $0.35 | -$271.65 | 57% 716-547 (1263) |
Invested
$5,424.41
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
71%
341-142 (483)
Invested
$2,264.5
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
59%
1036-727 (1763)
Invested
$925.82
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$138.14
Record
67%
642-313 (955)
Invested
$549.99
Value
$743.24
PnL
+$193.24
Record
55%
321-267 (588)
Invested
$10
Value
$14.92
PnL
+$4.92
Record
65%
25736-13843 (39579)
Invested
$1,926.93
Value
$2.05
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
64%
131-74 (205)
Medo3DCTRInvested
$311.08
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$310.54
Record
41%
198-289 (487)
Hawk.liveCTRInvested
$274.67
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$271.65
Record
57%
716-547 (1263)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
qwerqr1251251
angry birds — $6.8K
0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592
angry birds — $3.9K
0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266
angry birds — $1.1K
r2d2v2
angry birds — $743.24
pauleta23
angry birds — $14.92
UNIVERSEMVP
CTRKa4kanarskie cyxariki — $2.05
Medo3D
CTRKa4kanarskie cyxariki — $0.54
Hawk.live
CTRKa4kanarskie cyxariki — $0.35