Dota 2: Team Allied vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Zero Tenacity (25%) · Zero Tenacity at 60¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Team Allied40¢Zero Tenacity60¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zero Tenacity

Consensus Traders

Zero Tenacity 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$79.43

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 60¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

2 of 8 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Allied40%

Zero Tenacity60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zero Tenacity2 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares14,171

Combined PnL+$625.06

Team Allied6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares8,362

Combined PnL-$545.64

Zero Tenacity — 25%Team Allied — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Zero Tenacity. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZero Tenacity 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Allied 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Team Allied 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	Zero Tenacityavg 56.1¢	$7.5K	$8.0K	+$519.4	48% 546-593 (1139)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Team Alliedavg 50.4¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$498.66	49% 83-86 (169)
Tolkonevminus3CTR	Team Alliedavg 36.2¢	$999.89	$980.58	-$19.31	58% 44-32 (76)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$548.5	+$23.5	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$262.5	$338.82	+$76.32
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 50¢	$262.5	$209.68	-$52.82
DO DotaBotReborn	Zero Tenacityavg 50.8¢	$390.66	$496.32	+$105.66	70% 58-25 (83)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Team Alliedavg 43.9¢	$290.11	$264.07	-$18.88	16% 59-310 (369)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Alliedavg 44.5¢	$170.12	$112.57	-$57.55	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 44.5¢	$144.39	$79.58	-$64.81
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 58.9¢	$25.74	$32.99	+$7.26
poshposhARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 55¢	$40.34	$52.72	+$12.38	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 55¢	$25.99	$30.5	+$4.51
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 22.9¢	$14.35	$22.22	+$7.88
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 44¢	$50.24	$46.21	-$4.03	44% 62-79 (141)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 55¢	$19.25	$14	-$5.25	46% 158-189 (347)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 31¢	$3.41	$3.9	+$0.49	46% 972-1163 (2135)

RandomVibecoder

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$7,521.55

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$519.4

Record

48%

546-593 (1139)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$2,415.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$498.66

Record

49%

83-86 (169)

Tolkonevminus3CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$999.89

Value

$980.58

PnL

-$19.31

Record

58%

44-32 (76)

NotJumpARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$548.5

PnL

+$23.5

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$262.550¢+$76.32

Team Allied$262.550¢-$52.82

DotaBotReborn

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$390.66

Value

$496.32

PnL

+$105.66

Record

70%

58-25 (83)

panpidaras1CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$290.11

Value

$264.07

PnL

-$18.88

Record

16%

59-310 (369)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$170.12

Value

$112.57

PnL

-$57.55

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Both legs:

Team Allied$144.3944.5¢-$64.81

Zero Tenacity$25.7458.9¢+$7.26

poshposhARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$40.34

Value

$52.72

PnL

+$12.38

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$25.9955¢+$4.51

Team Allied$14.3522.9¢+$7.88

ccllarCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$50.24

Value

$46.21

PnL

-$4.03

Record

44%

62-79 (141)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$19.25

Value

$14

PnL

-$5.25

Record

46%

158-189 (347)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.49

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

2 of 8 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Zero Tenacity. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZero Tenacity 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Allied 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Team Allied 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zero Tenacity wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.