Dota 2: Team Allied vs potn9ki (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Team Allied (33%) · Team Allied at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Team Allied66¢potn9ki34¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Allied

Consensus Traders

Team Allied 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$13.05

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 66¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Allied at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Allied

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Allied66%

potn9ki34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Allied2 traders

Total Value$877.45

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL+$167.69

potn9ki4 traders

Total Value$442.41

Total Shares1,559

Combined PnL-$154.64

Team Allied — 33%potn9ki — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Team Allied. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrpotn9ki 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Team Allied 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	Team Alliedavg 58.7¢	$704.29	$870.9	+$166.61	59% 33-23 (56)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	potn9kiavg 50¢	$525	$491.27	-$33.73	53% 631-566 (1197)
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 50¢	$262.5	$381.02	+$118.52
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 50¢	$262.5	$110.25	-$152.25
AM ameisgoat11CTR	potn9kiavg 28.6¢	$189.81	$241.88	+$52.08	40% 584-893 (1477)
LI LiquidifierCTR	potn9kiavg 42.4¢	$282.04	$139.75	-$142.29	21% 25-96 (121)
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Team Alliedavg 66.6¢	$118.21	$111.7	-$6.51	18% 47-216 (263)
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 66.6¢	$85.71	$82.39	-$3.32
└ potn9ki leg	potn9kiavg 39.9¢	$32.5	$29.31	-$3.19
GA GaditimaCTR	potn9kiavg 44.1¢	$188	$35.14	-$52.87	47% 224-251 (475)
poshposhCTR<$100	potn9kiavg 41.1¢	$37.2	$25.64	-$11.56	46% 781-902 (1683)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Team Alliedavg 66¢	$5.47	$6.55	+$1.08	32% 291-613 (904)

JuiceFarm

Team Allied

Invested

$704.29

Value

$870.9

PnL

+$166.61

Record

59%

33-23 (56)

NotJumpARB<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$525

Value

$491.27

PnL

-$33.73

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

Both legs:

Team Allied$262.550¢+$118.52

potn9ki$262.550¢-$152.25

ameisgoat11CTR

potn9ki

Invested

$189.81

Value

$241.88

PnL

+$52.08

Record

40%

584-893 (1477)

LiquidifierCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$282.04

Value

$139.75

PnL

-$142.29

Record

21%

25-96 (121)

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$118.21

Value

$111.7

PnL

-$6.51

Record

18%

47-216 (263)

Both legs:

Team Allied$85.7166.6¢-$3.32

potn9ki$32.539.9¢-$3.19

GaditimaCTR

potn9ki

Invested

$188

Value

$35.14

PnL

-$52.87

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

poshposhCTR<$100

potn9ki

Invested

$37.2

Value

$25.64

PnL

-$11.56

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

SlickRick123<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$5.47

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$1.08

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Allied at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Allied

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Team Allied. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrpotn9ki 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Team Allied 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Allied wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.