Dota 2: Astra Invicta vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Astra Invicta (56%) · Astra Invicta at 68¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 27

Astra Invicta68¢LEGION32¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astra Invicta

Consensus Traders

Astra Invicta 56%

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$144.77

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstra Invicta at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astra Invicta

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Astra Invicta68%

LEGION33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astra Invicta5 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares30,031

Combined PnL+$150.15

LEGION4 traders

Total Value$365.61

Total Shares1,125

Combined PnL-$5.38

Astra Invicta — 56%LEGION — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR TrippleEX	Astra Invictaavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$50	57% 280-207 (487)
DR drunkdegenerate	Astra Invictaavg 67¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$40	54% 191-162 (353)
VI vibing123	Astra Invictaavg 67¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$40	52% 1531-1415 (2946)
l0wkirkenuinely	Astra Invictaavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.5	56% 192-148 (340)
T8 t89e4ygf6	Astra Invictaavg 67¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$7.65	44% 90-115 (205)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	LEGIONavg 32¢	$160.96	$163.47	+$2.51	47% 2366-2637 (5003)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	LEGIONavg 35¢	$107.42	$99.75	-$7.67	49% 18384-18810 (37194)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 32.8¢	$70.62	$69.89	-$0.73	50% 3672-3640 (7312)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 32¢	$32	$32.5	+$0.5	58% 40367-29157 (69524)

TrippleEX

Astra Invicta

Invested

$6,700

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$50

Record

57%

280-207 (487)

drunkdegenerate

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,359.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

54%

191-162 (353)

vibing123

Astra Invicta

Invested

$5,359.96

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

52%

1531-1415 (2946)

l0wkirkenuinely

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,675

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

56%

192-148 (340)

t89e4ygf6

Astra Invicta

Invested

$1,025.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$7.65

Record

44%

90-115 (205)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

LEGION

Invested

$160.96

Value

$163.47

PnL

+$2.51

Record

47%

2366-2637 (5003)

omnibus-076daaCTR

LEGION

Invested

$107.42

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$7.67

Record

49%

18384-18810 (37194)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$70.62

Value

$69.89

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

3672-3640 (7312)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$32

Value

$32.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

Research grade

NeutralAstra Invicta at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Astra Invicta

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astra Invicta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.