Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 14¢ · $337 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$337.25
-$13.99
35.2¢ → 14.5¢
-59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Noavg 32.6¢ | $517.51 | $141.96 | +$134.33 | 42% 1706-2331 (4037) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 76¢ | $88.24 | $102.18 | +$14.29 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.6¢ | $108.15 | $39.79 | +$120.04 | |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $30.51 | $86 | +$52.27 | 32% 4384-9435 (13819) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 37.2¢ | $128.4 | $51.73 | -$76.67 | 61% 20901-13305 (34206) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Noavg 24.7¢ | $71.01 | $43.1 | -$27.91 | 45% 2760-3309 (6069) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 59.5¢ | $313.08 | $14.46 | +$38.33 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
Invested
$517.51
Value
$141.96
PnL
+$134.33
Record
42%
1706-2331 (4037)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.51
Value
$86
PnL
+$52.27
Record
32%
4384-9435 (13819)
balthazarCTRInvested
$128.4
Value
$51.73
PnL
-$76.67
Record
61%
20901-13305 (34206)
Invested
$71.01
Value
$43.1
PnL
-$27.91
Record
45%
2760-3309 (6069)
Invested
$313.08
Value
$14.46
PnL
+$38.33
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.