Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 66¢ · $445 held · ends Nov 13

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$444.84

Combined PnL

-$77.02

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 66¢

-17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$443.7

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$77.4

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.14

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.38

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 80.7¢	$322.16	$268.23	-$53.94	53% 40-36 (76)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$74.07	$68.24	-$5.83	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 82¢	$42.75	$35.41	-$7.34	3% 1-31 (32)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$41.49	$33.55	-$7.94	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$15.41	$16.47	+$1.06	47% 356-402 (758)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$15.73	$11.89	-$3.84	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$6.72	$6.72	+$0	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$2.77	$3.21	+$0.43	43% 375-505 (880)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$0.76	$1.14	+$0.38	48% 343-365 (708)

Haradwaith

Invested

$322.16

Value

$268.23

PnL

-$53.94

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$74.07

Value

$68.24

PnL

-$5.83

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$42.75

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$7.34

Record

1-31 (32)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$41.49

Value

$33.55

PnL

-$7.94

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$16.47

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.73

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$3.84

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.43

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.9%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.