Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 96¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$194.62

Combined PnL

-$1.68

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 96.4¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$194.51

Total Shares197

Combined PnL-$1.68

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.7¢	$101.26	$100.43	-$0.83	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.4	$22.22	-$0.18	43% 375-505 (880)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.78	-$0.16	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$18.94	$18.79	-$0.15	43% 387-516 (903)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$16.64	$16.35	-$0.28	26% 860-2483 (3343)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.89	$9.81	-$0.08	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.38	$2.38	+$0	45% 378-468 (846)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.37	$2.37	+$0	47% 356-402 (758)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.36	$2.36	+$0	41% 689-993 (1682)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.11	$0.11	-$0	48% 343-365 (708)

Lucerys

Invested

$101.26

Value

$100.43

PnL

-$0.83

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$0.18

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$18.94

Value

$18.79

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.35

PnL

-$0.28

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$0.08

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

689-993 (1682)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.