Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 95¢ · $219 held · ends Nov 13

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$218.71

Combined PnL

$4.8

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 95.2¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$218.65

Total Shares223

Combined PnL+$5.52

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.72

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$86.16	$87.63	+$1.47	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$44.63	$48.88	+$4.25	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.37	+$0	26% 860-2483 (3343)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.28	$19.56	+$0.28	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$16.32	$16.32	+$0	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.79	-$0.01	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.27	$4.76	-$0.51	43% 387-516 (903)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96¢	$2.29	$2.34	+$0.05	48% 343-365 (708)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.78	$0.06	-$0.72	45% 378-468 (846)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$86.16

Value

$87.63

PnL

+$1.47

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$44.63

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$4.25

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.37

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.28

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$16.32

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.51

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.72

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

171h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.