Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 97¢ · $420 held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$419.99

Combined PnL

$20.76

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 97¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$419.16

Total Shares424

Combined PnL+$21.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.7

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 94.7¢	$105.65	$110.32	+$4.67	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89¢	$75.75	$75	-$0.75	10% 3-27 (30)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 84¢	$57.96	$68.24	+$10.28	51% 40-38 (78)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$43.64	$49.38	+$5.74	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.33	-$0.07	27% 104-283 (387)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.33	-$0.34	24% 77-243 (320)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$19.78	+$0.78	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96¢	$18.38	$18.94	+$0.56	48% 343-365 (708)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96¢	$16	$16.49	+$0.48	17% 66-330 (396)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94¢	$2.25	$2.36	+$0.12	45% 378-468 (846)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.06	-$0.7	43% 375-505 (880)

Lucerys

Invested

$105.65

Value

$110.32

PnL

+$4.67

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$75.75

Value

$75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

10%

3-27 (30)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$57.96

Value

$68.24

PnL

+$10.28

Record

51%

40-38 (78)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$43.64

Value

$49.38

PnL

+$5.74

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$0.34

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$0.78

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.38

Value

$18.94

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$16.49

PnL

+$0.48

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.12

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.7

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.