Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $274 held · ends Nov 13

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$273.84

Combined PnL

$6.35

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 95.1¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$273.42

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$7.8

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.42

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$1.45

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$96.93	$99.42	+$2.49	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 90¢	$53.36	$52.84	-$0.04	10% 3-27 (30)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$42.74	$48.88	+$6.14	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$28.31	-$1.07	24% 77-243 (320)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.79	$19.57	+$0.78	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$16.28	$16.32	+$0.04	27% 104-283 (387)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 92¢	$2.21	$2.35	+$0.14	48% 343-365 (708)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92¢	$2.19	$2.33	+$0.14	43% 387-516 (903)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$2.7	$1.92	-$0.78	45% 378-468 (846)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$1.53	$1.48	-$0.05	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.23	-$0.79	43% 375-505 (880)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.19	-$0.66	47% 356-402 (758)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$96.93

Value

$99.42

PnL

+$2.49

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$53.36

Value

$52.84

PnL

-$0.04

Record

10%

3-27 (30)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42.74

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$6.14

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$28.31

PnL

-$1.07

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$18.79

Value

$19.57

PnL

+$0.78

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$0.04

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

343-365 (708)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.14

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.78

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.79

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.66

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.