Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $289 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$288.53

Combined PnL

$15.97

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 98.1¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$288.37

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$16.8

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.83

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 93.7¢	$104.53	$110.32	+$5.79	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$41.6	$49.38	+$7.78	53% 5671-5102 (10773)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.43	-$0.27	27% 936-2514 (3450)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.43	-$0.24	26% 860-2483 (3343)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$17.18	$19.78	+$2.6	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$18.98	$18.94	-$0.04	41% 689-993 (1682)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94¢	$15.67	$16.48	+$0.82	17% 76-374 (450)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.91	$9.89	-$0.02	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.17	$2.36	+$0.19	43% 375-505 (880)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.17	$2.35	+$0.19	47% 356-402 (758)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$0.98	$0.15	-$0.83	43% 387-516 (903)

Lucerys

Invested

$104.53

Value

$110.32

PnL

+$5.79

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$41.6

Value

$49.38

PnL

+$7.78

Record

53%

5671-5102 (10773)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$0.27

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$0.24

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.18

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$2.6

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.98

Value

$18.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

41%

689-993 (1682)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$15.67

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$0.82

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.19

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.19

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.83

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.