Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 92¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 13

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$249.67

Combined PnL

$9.31

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 92¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$248.79

Total Shares283

Combined PnL+$8.55

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.88

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.77

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$88.62	$89.36	+$0.74	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$53.68	$53.71	+$4.89	51% 40-38 (78)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$40.72	$43.94	+$3.22	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 88¢	$26.4	$26.18	-$0.22	17% 66-330 (396)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$16.81	$16.71	-$0.11	43% 375-505 (880)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$14.62	$14.67	+$0.05	27% 936-2514 (3450)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$4.26	$4.23	-$0.03	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.11	$0.88	+$0.77	47% 356-402 (758)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$88.62

Value

$89.36

PnL

+$0.74

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$53.68

Value

$53.71

PnL

+$4.89

Record

51%

40-38 (78)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40.72

Value

$43.94

PnL

+$3.22

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.18

PnL

-$0.22

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$16.81

Value

$16.71

PnL

-$0.11

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$14.62

Value

$14.67

PnL

+$0.05

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.77

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.