Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $303 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$303.33
$5.31
89.8¢ → 91¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 89.4¢ | $256.71 | $257.23 | +$6.12 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 92.3¢ | $190.15 | $38.78 | -$0.65 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $7.48 | $7.32 | -$0.16 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.