Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $528 held · ends Nov 10

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$527.85

Combined PnL

$28.62

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 95¢

+5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$516.91

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$31.13

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.94

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$2.51

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$92.92	$92.74	-$0.19	42% 3656-5058 (8714)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$92.92	$92.74	-$0.19	28% 329-852 (1181)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$92.19	$92.74	+$0.55	30% 369-871 (1240)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$92.92	$92.74	-$0.19	29% 373-898 (1271)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$14.56	$44.16	+$29.6	51% 3491-3371 (6862)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$40.99	$41.74	+$0.75	43% 1332-1789 (3121)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$28.41	$28.8	+$0.39	48% 8568-9112 (17680)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$12.6	$12.69	+$0.09	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$10.53	$10.51	-$0.02	29% 357-873 (1230)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$10.72	$8.33	-$2.38	17% 4208-19852 (24060)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 92¢	$7.73	$8.06	+$0.34	24% 304-947 (1251)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$2.73	$2.6	-$0.12	39% 976-1556 (2532)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$92.92

Value

$92.74

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

3656-5058 (8714)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$92.92

Value

$92.74

PnL

-$0.19

Record

28%

329-852 (1181)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$92.19

Value

$92.74

PnL

+$0.55

Record

30%

369-871 (1240)

akroll<$100

Invested

$92.92

Value

$92.74

PnL

-$0.19

Record

29%

373-898 (1271)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$44.16

PnL

+$29.6

Record

51%

3491-3371 (6862)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$40.99

Value

$41.74

PnL

+$0.75

Record

43%

1332-1789 (3121)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.41

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

8568-9112 (17680)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.69

PnL

+$0.09

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

klli27<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

357-873 (1230)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$2.38

Record

17%

4208-19852 (24060)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$7.73

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$0.34

Record

24%

304-947 (1251)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.12

Record

39%

976-1556 (2532)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.