Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 82¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 17

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$109.69

Combined PnL

$58.59

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$96.26

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$21.16

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.12

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$37.43

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$45.69	$48.48	+$2.79	34% 229-452 (681)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$13.81	$14.72	+$0.91	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$10.83	$11.44	+$0.61	51% 719-703 (1422)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$9.03	$9.04	+$0.01	52% 1637-1540 (3177)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$71.73	$8.88	+$33.09	31% 161-352 (513)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$8.05	$8.03	-$0.02	34% 244-467 (711)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$97.18	$4.55	+$16.87	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.52	$3.25	+$4.34	15% 22-123 (145)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$45.69

Value

$48.48

PnL

+$2.79

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$0.91

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.44

PnL

+$0.61

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$9.03

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1637-1540 (3177)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.73

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$33.09

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$97.18

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$16.87

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.52

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$4.34

Record

15%

22-123 (145)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.1%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.