Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$262.93
-$9.39
85.3¢ → 68.3¢
-20% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 91.1¢ | $100.84 | $91.21 | -$9.63 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $43.71 | $45.69 | +$1.98 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $39.31 | $41.2 | +$1.89 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $34.34 | $31.02 | -$3.32 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $27.39 | $27.19 | -$0.2 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $22.25 | $22.25 | +$0 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $4.48 | $4.37 | -$0.11 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
HaradwaithInvested
$100.84
Value
$91.21
PnL
-$9.63
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$43.71
Value
$45.69
PnL
+$1.98
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
Invested
$39.31
Value
$41.2
PnL
+$1.89
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$31.02
PnL
-$3.32
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$27.39
Value
$27.19
PnL
-$0.2
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$22.25
Value
$22.25
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.37
PnL
-$0.11
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.