Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 80¢ · $110 held · ends Nov 17

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$110.2

Combined PnL

-$9.24

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 80.4¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$106.15

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$10.8

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.57

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$1.56

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$50.81	$24.14	+$1.27	27% 950-2550 (3500)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$28.01	$23.34	-$4.66	26% 872-2506 (3378)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$32.05	$22.31	-$2.71	10% 6-53 (59)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$19.54	$15.56	-$3.98	40% 1476-2199 (3675)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$11.02	$11.39	+$0.38	42% 840-1166 (2006)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$10.49	$9.41	-$1.08	47% 526-596 (1122)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.95	$3.57	+$1.56	38% 66-109 (175)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$50.81

Value

$24.14

PnL

+$1.27

Record

27%

950-2550 (3500)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.01

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$4.66

Record

26%

872-2506 (3378)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$32.05

Value

$22.31

PnL

-$2.71

Record

10%

6-53 (59)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.54

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$3.98

Record

40%

1476-2199 (3675)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

840-1166 (2006)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$1.08

Record

47%

526-596 (1122)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.95

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$1.56

Record

38%

66-109 (175)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.0%

80.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.