Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$148.63
-$0.86
81.2¢ → 90.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $72.72 | $74.16 | +$1.44 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $21.84 | $24.19 | +$2.34 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.8 | +$0.8 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $17.8 | +$0.8 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $23.72 | $14.68 | -$6.24 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
Invested
$72.72
Value
$74.16
PnL
+$1.44
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$21.84
Value
$24.19
PnL
+$2.34
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$23.72
Value
$14.68
PnL
-$6.24
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.