Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 17

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$146.89

Combined PnL

-$17.56

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$145.3

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.85

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.97

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$18.41

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$59.1	$59.15	+$0.05	41% 1583-2278 (3861)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.22	$29.58	+$0.36	27% 202-541 (743)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$19.9	$19.72	-$0.18	31% 197-448 (645)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$17.75	$17.96	+$0.22	50% 670-672 (1342)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$13.55	$13.96	+$0.41	51% 711-692 (1403)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.94	$4.94	-$0	57% 648-482 (1130)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$23.86	$0.97	-$18.41	31% 118-260 (378)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$59.1

Value

$59.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

1583-2278 (3861)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.36

Record

27%

202-541 (743)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$0.18

Record

31%

197-448 (645)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$17.96

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

670-672 (1342)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.55

Value

$13.96

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

711-692 (1403)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

648-482 (1130)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.86

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$18.41

Record

31%

118-260 (378)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.