Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 17

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$126.78

Combined PnL

-$15.1

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 97.9¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$121.55

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$1.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.6

Total Shares128

Combined PnL-$16.53

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$47.52	$48.95	+$1.43	27% 202-541 (743)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.37	-$0	41% 1583-2278 (3861)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.37	-$0	29% 1071-2631 (3702)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$13.86	$13.86	-$0	62% 683-418 (1101)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.34	$4.04	-$8.22	31% 118-260 (378)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.04	$0.52	-$2.5	14% 14-86 (100)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$83.51	$0.04	-$5.81	36% 3663-6535 (10198)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$47.52

Value

$48.95

PnL

+$1.43

Record

27%

202-541 (743)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1583-2278 (3861)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

1071-2631 (3702)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

683-418 (1101)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.34

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$8.22

Record

31%

118-260 (378)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.5

Record

14%

14-86 (100)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.51

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.81

Record

36%

3663-6535 (10198)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.