Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 17

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$106.95

Combined PnL

-$8.51

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 96.7¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$101.72

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$1.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.66

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$9.6

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.2	$29.37	+$1.17	17% 94-450 (544)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29	-$0.38	26% 119-337 (456)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.58	+$0.18	26% 872-2506 (3378)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$13.86	$13.69	-$0.18	62% 472-292 (764)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.09	$5.19	+$0.1	25% 93-281 (374)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.71	$4.9	+$0.2	48% 492-536 (1028)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.59	$4.44	-$8.6	38% 66-109 (175)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.43	$0.23	-$1.01	10% 6-53 (59)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$29.37

PnL

+$1.17

Record

17%

94-450 (544)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29

PnL

-$0.38

Record

26%

119-337 (456)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$0.18

Record

26%

872-2506 (3378)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$0.18

Record

62%

472-292 (764)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.1

Record

25%

93-281 (374)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

492-536 (1028)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.59

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$8.6

Record

38%

66-109 (175)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.43

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.01

Record

10%

6-53 (59)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.