Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 96¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 17

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$216.61

Combined PnL

-$33.87

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 96¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$208.18

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$5.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.82

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$27.93

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 97.3¢	$116.74	$115.98	-$0.76	34% 244-467 (711)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$46.3	$48.33	+$2.03	34% 229-452 (681)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$13.86	$13.69	-$0.18	49% 753-797 (1550)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$10.66	$10.55	-$0.11	52% 1637-1540 (3177)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$9.58	$9.48	-$0.1	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$165.62	$7.5	-$27.16	31% 161-352 (513)
Lucerys	Noavg 96.9¢	$115.05	$5.31	-$6.87	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$4.79	$4.84	+$0.05	63% 736-439 (1175)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.32	-$0.77	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

god83743894

Invested

$116.74

Value

$115.98

PnL

-$0.76

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$46.3

Value

$48.33

PnL

+$2.03

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$10.66

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

1637-1540 (3177)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.1

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.62

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$27.16

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

Lucerys

Invested

$115.05

Value

$5.31

PnL

-$6.87

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.05

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.77

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.