Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$181.64
$5.92
90.6¢ → 94.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $86.58 | $64.5 | +$4.48 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $34.37 | $35.01 | +$0.64 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $30.69 | $30.69 | +$0 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $27.9 | +$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $18.6 | +$0.8 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.93 | $4.93 | +$0 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$86.58
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$4.48
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$34.37
Value
$35.01
PnL
+$0.64
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$30.69
Value
$30.69
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$17.8
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.