Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$196.93
$14.7
80.6¢ → 87¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 80.7¢ | $101.26 | $70.78 | +$6.1 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $31.24 | $32.38 | +$1.14 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $25.08 | $28.71 | +$3.63 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $22.8 | $26.1 | +$3.3 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $17.2 | +$0 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $17.2 | +$0 | 10% 3-27 (30) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $4.03 | $4.56 | +$0.53 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
HaradwaithInvested
$101.26
Value
$70.78
PnL
+$6.1
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$31.24
Value
$32.38
PnL
+$1.14
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$25.08
Value
$28.71
PnL
+$3.63
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$26.1
PnL
+$3.3
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$17.2
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$17.2
PnL
+$0
Record
10%
3-27 (30)
Invested
$4.03
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$0.53
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.